The last Test series of the winter begins on Thursday when New Zealand and Australia play a two match series which acts as the final farewell for Brendon McCullum and his international career.
The two nations met over the longest format of the game in Australia just prior to Christmas where Australia won the series 2-0 but the longer that series went on the more competitive it got which could well give us an interesting, albeit far too short, series here.
The interesting prelude to this series was the recent ODI series between the two. The three matches were competitive as you would expect with New Zealand running out 2-1 winners and with Australia having not had a red ball warm up since arriving in Kiwi land that series result could be significant.
New Zealand are becoming a real form side on their own patch in Test cricket. They have lost just one of their last seven series at home and that was against an all-conquering South Africa side. The catalyst of that is their new ball bowlers swinging the ball to maximum effect.
In contrast Australia’s record away from their home surroundings isn’t the best in recent times. They have only won three of their last seven series on the road and two of them were in the West Indies which isn’t the greatest form guide these days. Their scores are much lower away from home too which will be another concern.
A further worry for the tourists in this series could be that none of their current squad have played a Test match in New Zealand and without a warm up match and this series being just two matches they don’t have the luxury of taking time to adjust to the conditions.
I’m expecting a much lower scoring series here than in series gone past this winter but I think that will play into the hands of the home side as their batting depth is much stronger than Australia’s at the current time.
If Boult and Southee are on top form then they will be a real handful for the Aussies in these conditions. We’ve seen for the last 12-18 months that they struggle with the moving ball so at 5/2 I think New Zealand to win the series is the best bet here.
Normally I would hit the player markets for a value series punt but it is hard to find as much value in two match series so I will stick with a punt on the Kiwis as my only bet in the outright markets for this series.
Back New Zealand to win Test series for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with William Hill
