After a T20 series which was a lot more one-sided than it could and maybe should have been, New Zealand and Sri Lanka begin an ODI series which has a little more context to it in Wellington on Sunday with both sides looking to go one up with two to play.
You would have thought that the series meant more to New Zealand given they have a Champions Trophy to compete in roughly six weeks from now. Sri Lanka aren’t at that tournament but are clearly improving in this format.
New Zealand
When you consider that New Zealand will be looking for a positive showing at the Champions Trophy next month, it is a little weird that they go into this series off the back of just three ODIs throughout 2024 and without a host of players who you would imagine will be heading to Pakistan and the UAE for that tournament. That means that these three games offer up the chance for some fringe players to stake a serious claim to be included in the squad for the white ball extravaganza.
New Zealand do have the comfort of knowing that they won the T20 series although they did lose the last game. We probably shouldn’t hold that against them too much because they had already won the series by then. The bowling generally got the job done for them in that series and it will be interesting to see if that unit can hold up here over the longer distance. You would imagine that even without a host of batters that their batting should be fine on these pitches.
Sri Lanka
After a really poor World Cup 15 months or so ago, there have been clear improvements in the ODI format for Sri Lanka and here is a chance to showcase that further. If there is a concern for the Sri Lanka fans and setup it would be that the upturn has come courtesy of a bunch of home matches. We will find out much more about their revival in this format in this series because although they are in conditions which are a little more alien to them, they are up against a second string side.
Sri Lanka didn’t bat very well in the opening two T20 matches so that is where the test is going to lie for them from the outset in this ODI series. These conditions aren’t going to be warm or anything like they would be used to so they will need to perform despite that. They are unlikely to find much help in terms of spin in the pitch here either which could be an issue but they have an improving artillery of seam bowlers who have a great chance to show what they can do here.
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Team News
New Zealand are going to be without the likes of Kane Williamson, Finn Allen, Adam Milne, Tim Seifert, Lockie Ferguson and Devon Conway who are all off playing franchise cricket. Jacob Duffy impressed in the T20 matches and is expected to get the chance to shine here.
Sri Lanka could give a debut to Eshan Malinga in this match as they look to build their seam depth in this format of the game. Importantly Wanindu Hasaranga is available as he balances their side out nicely with his all-round skills.
Betting
I’m largely going to keep my powder dry for the opening game of this series because I’d like to assess the strength or otherwise of New Zealand and I would also like to see how Sri Lanka go about their business away from home, especially with the ball in hand. If I had to bet on the match outcome ahead of the game starting I would probably side with Sri Lanka as an ounce of value but instead I will target a different market for a bet.
That comes in the total runs where we have a line which looks a little on the low side to me at 521.5. I say that because although we haven’t had an ODI here for a while, the last four first innings in ODI cricket at the Basin have had scores of more than 270. If we get that again then the chasing side will only have to run it close for this line to be covered. The last T20 between these two saw both teams scoring over 210 so the batters are suddenly in good form. Both bowling attacks look lighter than they would want to be and there is depth to both batting units. I like the over here.
Tips
Back Over 521.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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