Sri Lanka kick off their tour of New Zealand on Wednesday evening UK time (Thursday morning in New Zealand) when they take on the Kiwis in the first of two Test matches.
All eyes will be on the University Oval in Dunedin to see if Sri Lanka can be the first side to win a Test in New Zealand in three years. Statistics and recent evidence would suggest that is unlikely.
New Zealand will need to ensure they are over their defeat in Australia last month but there is nothing like a return to conditions and venues where they have good records to put misery behind them and that is what they are expected to do here.
This is the second time in as many summers that Sri Lanka have played red ball cricket in New Zealand. Unlike 12 months ago though this is a young and dare I say it weak looking side. Inexperienced it most certainly is and having lost 2-0 with the likes of Sangakkara around 12 months ago the task is plain for all to see in its difficulty.
We’re yet to get confirmation of the New Zealand side but there aren’t expected to be too many changes to the one which played in Australia. They have only named a 12 man squad so you would think the final spot is between Mitchell Santner and Neil Wagner.
The interesting thing for Sri Lanka will be how they set up their batting line up. Kusal Perera looked like featuring in it somewhere but he’s been sent home with his tail between his legs after failing a drugs test and that could leave a side with only three players who have experience in this country even lighter than they would like.
The University Oval in Dunedin will be hosting its seventh Test match. With the World Cup in town last year it never got a match last summer but it has one now.
New Zealand have won two of the previous six matches here with the other four all being high scoring draws. Sri Lanka appear on this ground for the first time and they might take comfort from the fact that the wicket is good for batting if their batsmen are only good enough to take advantage of that.
Of the two matches I would imagine this one will be the most competitive. New Zealand’s quicks might not get as much talk out of the ball here as they will at the Basin Reserve and that will please the Sri Lankans but even then I would be surprised if this is anything but a home win. The price is short enough and three successive draws here are enough to put me off that though particularly as I’m effectively on the New Zealand win with one of my outright bets.
One bet I can’t be put off of though is Ross Taylor’s performance. The line is 75.5 but that looks way too low given both his current form and his record on this ground.
We know he is in good nick after that magnificent knock he produced in Perth a few weeks ago and his record around here is just as good. He averages 104.80 on this ground from eight innings including a wonderful 217* against the West Indies here in 2013. He has scores of 94, 59, 48* and 44 here too so his record is extremely good.
That’s no surprise on this batting paradise of a wicket so I’m expecting big things from Taylor here. If he doesn’t cover with the bat, which would be a surprise in itself, then he will be at slip for most of the match where catching chances will come along. He has nine catches here in four matches which highlights his chances in that area too.
Taylor plays seam and spin well so looks to have everything in his favour to reach 76pts be it with just runs or a combination of runs and catches.
I’ll also dabble in the Top Sri Lanka Bowler market for the first innings where the youngster Dushmantha Chameera looks a big price at 9/2.
Chameera was the only one to come out of the warm up match with any credit and with Dhammika Prasad already off home with injury that is a big danger out of the way immediately.
Chameera has good pace – he has been clocked over 145kph a few times, and on this flat deck that could be the difference between him and the rest of the attack. If he steams in at the tail he could buy some cheap wickets but he’s good enough to claim some scalps before then so this looks a nice price to go in at.
Back R.Taylor’s Performance Pts – Over 75.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back D.Chameera Top Sri Lanka 1st Inns Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Coral
