The final match of the NFL regular season is a winner takes all showdown for the final wildcard spot in the AFC as the Tennessee Titans play host to the Indianapolis Colts in what might just be the biggest match of the season.
While both will be expecting to be playing for a trip to the third seeds in the postseason next week, if the Houston Texans have lost earlier in the day, these two will actually be going for the AFC South title which will add to the anticipation for the contest.
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans were floundering at 5-6 for the campaign a few weeks ago but four wins on the bounce not only sees them coming into this match in exceptional form and with a 9-6 record but it also keeps them very much in the hunt for another shot in the postseason. They know they need to make it five wins on the spin for that to become a reality but writing them off in their current form would be folly.
The Titans defence has really come to the fore in the last four weeks. They have only given up 47pts in total in those matches and they might well need their back line to remain strong here as there is a major doubt over the availability of quarterback Marcus Mariota in this match. If he isn’t fit, and signs are that he won’t be, then Blaine Gabbert will be ascertained with the task of leading Tennessee to the postseason.
Indianapolis Colts
It took the Indianapolis Colts a few weeks to get going this season. Andrew Luck inevitably and understandably needed a few matches to get up to speed after a lengthy period being out injured but in recent times they have found their gear and head to Tennessee off the back of eight wins in their last nine matches so they are certainly in good form.
The defeat in that time was a weird one when they were shutout against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which should be a warning that while they are in good form and going well, an off day is never completely far away. Four of their last six wins have been by three points or fewer so we know the Colts will play for the full 60 minutes and hold their nerve under pressure.
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Betting
What a final match of the regular season we are going to be treated to. The knockout stuff doesn’t officially begin until next week but it comes a few days early here with both sides knowing the result of losing here. Mariota’s injury sides me to the Colts in this match but I wouldn’t say it is with any certainty so my bet on the match is going to come from elsewhere.
The Titans defence is playing some outstanding football at the minute and I think they can keep the scoring down to a minimal number. When these two sides met in the reverse fixture there were 48pts but the Tennessee defence has come of age since then. The Colts kept Dallas scoreless a couple of weeks ago so they are playing nicely on that side of the ball too and I expect the ground games to be utilised a fair bit here especially when a team goes ahead. The situation could lead to a few nerves around the end zones and it all signals under 44.5pts being a good bet to me.
Tips
Back Under 44.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.87 with Betfred
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