The third and final match in the NFL on Boxing Day is an important one in the shake up for the play-offs in the AFC where it is the last chance saloon for the Las Vegas Raiders when they play host to a Miami Dolphins side who are in control of their own destiny.
Miami currently occupy the final wildcard spot in the play-offs and need to win their last two matches to pip the Baltimore Ravens to that slot while Las Vegas need to win out and hope that neither Miami nor Baltimore win another match.
Las Vegas Raiders
Not too long ago the Las Vegas Raiders were 6-3 and seemingly cruising to the postseason but since then they have dropped four of their last five matches and now at 7-7 they need something of a late miracle if they are going to make it. The big defining loss was against Los Angeles Chargers last week when they went down in overtime to all but end the hopes they had of extending their campaign. A win here will keep their feint hopes alive but they are clutching at straws now.
Their defence has become a big issue in recent times. In those four defeats they have conceded 30pts or more in all of them so they don’t need to search too hard to see when the improvement can be made, if not in time to extend this season then ahead of next year where even in a division with the Chiefs they should be eyeing up a postseason run. If they can sort out the defence they certainly have enough on offense to be competitive.
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins saw the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East last week so their only hope of reaching the play-offs comes in the form of a wildcard. At the minute they are holding on to the last of those slots but Baltimore Ravens have the easier conclusion to the season of the two so the Dolphins are probably the outsiders to make it. They gave themselves a better chance by getting the better of the New England Patriots last week and need to replicate that success here.
To be fair to the Dolphins their only defeat in the last four matches was against the Kansas City Chiefs who look like they are going to run away with the number one seeding in the AFC so although they could have done without losing that game it was hardly a defeat that lost ground to the field. In matches against normal offenses their defence has stood up and been counted and the team have generally gone well as a result.
Betting
It is hard to see past the Miami Dolphins here for a couple of reasons. The first is that they need to keep winning to remain in control of their destiny and the second is that the form of the two sides is the exact opposite of each other. Miami have won three of their last four matches, conceding very little in the way of points in those victories, whereas the Raiders have lost four of their last five and are hitting something of a crisis in confidence.
You never truly know who is fit and who isn’t for the Las Vegas Raiders so there might be a surprise in personnel unlike Miami who are much more settled. The Raiders defence has been exposed too regularly for my liking in recent times whereas apart from the beating by Kansas City, the Dolphins defence has been very strong. Ultimately I see Miami scoring with relative ease here and I don’t see Las Vegas having that luxury so it has to be the visitors for me.
Tips
WON – Back Miami Dolphins to beat Las Vegas Raiders for a 3/10 stake at 1.75 with Betfair
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