We have reached the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs with the first two matches taking place on Saturday. We start off in the NFC where the number one seeded Green Bay Packers host the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field.
The Packers watched on last week while the Rams battled hard to overcome their NFC West rivals Seattle Seahawks to set up this clash. Green Bay know if they win here they will host the NFC Championship game next week. The Rams will travel to either New Orleans or Tampa Bay should they win.
Green Bay Packers
Nobody bettered the season that the Green Bay Packers put together in the NFC this season but we have seen plenty of times in the past that what went before doesn’t necessarily equate into what will happen next in these NFL playoffs. The Packers have dominated largely through their offense, where the quarterback play of Aaron Rodgers has been Super Bowl worthy, while the running game has been in decent touch when needed as well.
It remains to be seen whether that offense continues to thrive in the freezing cold conditions at Lambeau Field but that could be where home advantage really comes to the fore. Their offensive line will need to be at their best to keep Rodgers protected. If they do that the Packers have every chance, even allowing for a defence which has looked a little creaky at times over the course of the campaign. They might not be tested as much as they would expect here.
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Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams have done well to make it this far in the season as it is never easy to go on the road and win in the NFL playoffs these days. Given the division that they are in they did well just to win enough matches to make it through as a wildcard but now they are in this contest they will want to do themselves justice and move to within a win to a Super Bowl return. If they are going to do that their number one ranked defence will need to play some of its best football.
The question mark over the Rams going into this match is on their own offense, a side of the ball that has struggled throughout the campaign. They have been having issues at quarterback in recent weeks and with John Wolford out of this match they will go back to Jared Goff and ask him to lead their progression despite clearly not being convinced by his credentials. That only makes it more important that Aaron Donald has been passed fit to play. The whole of Los Angeles will have their fingers crossed that he is 100%.
Betting
We have a cracking clash here between the league leading point scoring offense and the leading defence and it will all take place at a freezing cold Lambeau Field. It will be fascinating to see which facet comes out on top, whether it is the powerful offensive play of the Green Bay Packers or the strong defensive capabilities of the Los Angeles Rams. Usually at this time of year and in these conditions you would go with the defence and run game of the Rams but backing Jared Goff doesn’t feel like a nice position to be in.
That leads me to the points here where I think 45.5 could be a slightly high line. I say that for a few reasons. If we look at Green Bay then they are unlikely to be able to get too much from Davante Adams who will be kept quiet by Jalen Ramsey and if that means Rodgers holds onto the ball longer it brings Aaron Donald into play. On the other side of the field, the Rams are either going to ride their running game or if they fall behind will need Goff to come to the party. His best receiving weapon is an injury doubt here in Cooper Kupp so if the Rams do fall behind they could struggle to get back into it. That makes me think under 45.5pts is the way to play this one.
Tips
Back Under 45.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
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