A very entertaining Week 13 of the NFL 2021 season concludes with a blockbuster Monday Night Football clash as top spot in the AFC East is up for grabs when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in one of the biggest matches of the season so far.
The Patriots currently sit a game ahead of the Bills in the division heading into this match but should Buffalo make full use of home advantage they will move above their rivals and will become the new number one seeds in the AFC. This match is massive.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills started this season like a house on fire despite losing their opening match. They then went on a four-match winning burst which culminated in a win over the Kansas City Chiefs when it looked like they were going to run away with both the AFC East division and the AFC Conference. Since then though they have gone on a lose-win record for their last six matches which includes a concerning loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars so this is a statement game for the Bills.
One of the issues the Bills have is that they don’t look setup to repel sides who come hard at them and smash them up the middle. While their defence is pretty good in terms of personnel and depth, it is built to contain efficient passing attacks. Given who they could face in the playoffs that is a fair enough approach but it does put a little strain on their offense when up against those teams and they haven’t always been able to deliver the goods this season. When the Bills get it right though they do look the class team of the AFC.
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New England Patriots
One of the reasons why it looked like the Buffalo Bills were going to dominate the AFC East was because of the poor start to the season the New England Patriots made. They only won two of their opening six matches and this looked like it was going to be another season of transition for the Patriots. Something clicked after an overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 and since then they have gone on a six-match winning burst which has taken them to the top of the division.
The Patriots defence is beginning to play a lot tougher, with the Los Angeles Chargers the only team in the last six matches which have put up more than 13 points on them but the big difference is the comfort and confidence Mac Jones now has in the quarterback position. He is being extremely well coached with plays which allow him to be efficient without taking unnecessary risks and the offense is flourishing as a result of that. The offense has found a run game and is being to roll aside all in their way.
Betting
We should be in for a cracking match here between two really good teams. The thing which will add to the intrigue of it is the forecast for snow and freezing temperatures in Buffalo so this is going to be one of those old school hard battles for the purists and these two sides look perfectly kitted out for that. I don’t expect much in this one over the course of the evening and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the New England Patriots offer up enough to turn what looks a valuable odds against price into a win.
The bet I like though given the conditions, the hard fought nature of the match and the competitiveness with what is at stake is under 42.5 points. I didn’t expect this to be a free flowing, high scoring match anyway with Bill Belichick the master of shutting down offenses but when you throw in the conditions on top I certainly don’t expect the points to come easily here. I’m expecting a defensive tussle where every yard has to be earned and I’m happy to be on the under here.
Tips
Back Under 42.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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