Week 4 of the NFL 2022 season is a big one for us UK fans of the sport but before we get to the opening match in London on Sunday, we have a very appetising Thursday Night Football to look forward to as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Miami Dolphins.
That means we have a match between the reigning AFC champions and the only team in the Conference who are undefeated after three matches. Both teams have plenty of explosion on both sides of the ball so we could be set for a cracker here.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals fell out of the starting gates this season which would have been disappointing not just for their position in this campaign but also because it undid a lot of the positivity they build up last term. They lost in the opening match to the Pittsburgh Steelers when they couldn’t keep quarterback Joe Burrow upright and then went down to a Dallas Cowboys using their backup triggerman in their second game. They did beat the New York Jets last time out but what sort of a form guide that is remains to be seen.
The big concern for the Bengals at the minute has to be protecting Joe Burrow. That isn’t only affecting them in matches with the amount of sacks he is having to endure but quite simply the human body isn’t built to take the hits he regularly takes and something will have to give soon. The other issue they have is Ja’Marr Chase is starting to run into number one corners or double teams and his output has fallen off a cliff. They have been unable to get their run game going either which is contributing to both issues.
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Miami Dolphins
I would imagine even if you had asked the most positive Miami Dolphins at the beginning of the season if they could see them going 3-0 in their opening three games against the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills, there won’t have been many who said yes but after riding their luck a little they have won all three matches and don’t just head the way in the AFC East coming into this match but also in the AFC as a whole.
The key to their success so far has been the passing game where Tua Tagovailoa has enjoyed the two targets of Tyreeq Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The issue here though is that Tua and Waddle are both listed as questionable. The big problem for the Dolphins though has been their passing defence which has coughed up 700 yards in the last two matches and goes in here off the back of a short week where they had to defend 90 snaps in intense heat.
Betting
I think the effort the Miami Dolphins put in defensively last week is going to take its toll on them here but the problem I have with betting the Bengals is that there is just no certainty that they keep Joe Burrow on his feet long enough to maintain enough drives. I certainly don’t want to be with the Fins with the quarterback, second receiver and a whole bunch of players on the defensive side of the ball all listed as questionable which is never ideal on a short week.
I do however think this match is perfect for the Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow to throw for plenty of yards. Even if Miami keep Ja’Marr Chase under wraps, Burrow still has Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon who is proving to be much more use in the passing game than the running game to throw to. I’m not convinced this Dolphins defence does shut down Chase for the whole night though, especially in the second half where jaded legs may well become even heavier with the workload they are doing. The Bengals have no run game at present and a bashed up defence in front of them so Burrow to throw for over 273.5 yards looks the way to tackle this match.
Tips
Back J.Burrow – Over 273.5 passing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
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