The final match of the NFL 2023 regular season is a straight out clash for the AFC East title when the Miami Dolphins play host to the Buffalo Bills in a match which is going to have a huge impact in the race for the Super Bowl.
The winner of this match will win the division and claim the second seed in the AFC. The winner will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the playoffs next week while the losers will face the tricky test of a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins know they have a playoff spot sewn up but they will want the AFC East title and the home match next week that comes with it. If they are going to secure that then they need an immediate bounce back from what was a pretty humiliating defeat at the Baltimore Ravens last week, one which came at a cost with Bradley Chubb picking up a serious injury. While they are in the playoffs regardless of what happens here, they will be eager not to go in off the back of successive defeats.
With the Dolphins assured of a playoff spot they are choosing to rest Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle for this match as they are nursing injuries so if they are going to come out on top then you would imagine that it will largely be Tyreeq Hill who gets the job done for them. They wouldn’t mind it is their defence come to the party here because at some point in the postseason they will need that unit to come up with the goods if they are going to win the Super Bowl.
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Buffalo Bills
For much of the day on Sunday it looked like the Buffalo Bills were going to be involved in a win or bust clash here but the defeat for the Jacksonville Jaguars has meant they have a little bit more freedom going into this game as they have already clinched a spot in the playoffs. Even so, a home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers feels a much friendlier task than an away trip to the Kansas City Chiefs so there is still something on this game.
This feels like a chance for the offense to find its feet as even though the Bills have won the last four matches we haven’t really seen that explosive game from them in that time, although the weather is obviously a large reason for that. If the Bills can send out an offensive warning to the rest of the teams in the AFC they will feel good about themselves heading into what could yet be a key postseason given the form they enter it in.
Betting
I thought this might be a high scoring match even prior to the news that the Buffalo Bills are in the postseason but now that they have that spot secured I see no reason why we won’t see the power of both offenses coming to the party and treating us to an entertaining game in what could still be a shootout for the AFC East title. Generally when Miami have come up against a top side, or a side with a winning record this season they have given up a lot of points.
They shipped 48 in the reverse match against the Bills, 31 to the Eagles and 56 to Baltimore last week and the loss of Chubb isn’t likely to help that very much. Buffalo should be able to feast on this Miami defence but there are still plenty of big plays in this Miami side in terms of putting points on the board and I don’t expect them to shy away in front of their home fans. I expected a point line in the 50s here given the state of the game so I’m more than happy to be on the over on a 47.5 one.
Tips
Back Over 47.5 points for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Sky Bet
