A place in the NFL 2023 playoffs will be on the line in the second of the matches in the double header in the competition on Saturday night when the Indianapolis Colts play host to their AFC South rivals Houston Texans.
The equation for this one is pretty simple. The winners are into the postseason and will host a wildcard match as AFC South champions if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose on Sunday. The loser will see their season end immediately.
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts looked like they would have to settle for another season of what might have been when they were 4-5 for their year just after halfway through their campaign but five wins in the last seven weeks have seen them improve to 9-7 and they now go into their final match of the season, at home, knowing that victory will see them into the playoffs and potentially heading into the postseason with a bit of form and momentum behind them.
The Colts saw off the Las Vegas Raiders last week to keep their destiny in their own hands and now they will be looking to take advantage of being on their home field once again. Indianapolis have won their last three home matches which will be significant and most importantly of all their defence has come to the party in recent times. That defence will need to be with them here but if it is then they definitely have the playmakers on offense to be a force here.
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Houston Texans
The Houston Texans had originally shown themselves as the only real challengers to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title but after C.J. Stroud picked up a concussion they looked like they were going to fall away tamely. They still haven’t exactly come with a flourish or anything like that but the Jaguars have fallen off a cliff in terms of their form and all of a sudden the Texans head into the final match of the season arguably as favourites for the AFC South crown.
Houston are 3-3 for their last six matches so they have gone from 6-4 for the campaign to 9-7. Two of the three matches they have won though came against the Tennessee Titans and that isn’t the greatest form guide. The big thing for the Texans is that they are expected to have C.J. Stroud back at quarterback for this match and they are 8-6 with him as a starter this season. When Houston win their defence generally get the job done so all eyes will be on that unit here.
Betting
While it is very much a positive that the Houston Texans have C.J. Stroud back at quarterback for this match, he will be missing a couple of key wide receiving options and that is a concern for me. I do actually think when everyone is healthy that the Texans are the better of these two teams but the Indianapolis Colts come into this one with more of their offensive arsenal firing up and that is often the difference at this time of any NFL season.
When you add that to the fact that they are the home side in this key match and probably come into it in better form of the two, albeit Houston have played a couple of matches without Stroud leading the passing game, then in what is a pick ‘em game with the books there looks to be enough of an edge on the Colts here. I probably wouldn’t want to be asking the Colts to cover much of a spread but if they get ahead they can control the clock through Jonathan Taylor while Michael Pittman III can be a huge asset in getting them back into the match. Houston are just a little too strained personnel wise for my liking so I’ll take Indianapolis in this one.
Tips
Back Indianapolis Colts to beat Houston Texans for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with William Hill
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