The NFL stages a game on Black Friday for the first time this week as week 12 of the NFL 2023 season continues with another divisional rivalry clash when the New York Jets look to turn their form around when they host the Miami Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins currently lead the way in the AFC East but they do have the Buffalo Bills not far behind so they’ll be keen to win this. This season is in danger of falling apart even more for the Jets and they’ll be out to arrest the slide here.
New York Jets
We all know that this was meant to be the season that the New York Jets catapulted themselves into division and even Super Bowl contention only to see those hopes largely distinguished four snaps into the campaign when Aaron Rodgers went down injured. To be fair to the Jets, they were 4-3 for the year at one stage and threatening to stay competitive in the AFC mix but three straight defeats have probably put paid to that and consequences are already taking place.
The Jets have now confirmed that Zach Wilson will be benched and Tim Boyle will take over the starting role at quarterback. There is a feeling that will improve the Jets’ fortune in that he can’t be any worse than Wilson but the question is how much better, if at all, will he be? The positive for Boyle is he has an elite defence to fall back on but even that unit will be tested against a vibrant and powerful Miami offense.
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins have had an excellent first half of the season with six wins from their nine matches. While they would probably want one or two more wins on the board to claim themselves as one of the very best in the league, they have lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills so it has taken a very good team to get the better of them. They don’t appear to be playing one of those in this match it must be said.
The big reason why the Dolphins have gone very well this term is their offense. They scare the life out of even a good defence let alone average and poor ones and if that offense can challenge this Jets defence then you get the feeling this one will be all about how many they win by, especially as they have their own defence in decent enough order now and improving the longer the season has gone on. Things look good for the Dolphins heading in here.
Betting
The Miami Dolphins are being asked to win this by double digits on the point spread and while I wouldn’t say for certain that they won’t do that, should Boyle find something in this New York Jets offense then on the road in a relatively short week compared to a normal one, the Dolphins could be vulnerable to a fourth quarter back door cover. The under/over line looks about right to me too so I’ll take a player prop for my interest in this one.
The New York Jets’ defence is very good but it is much better against the pass than it is the run and they might well set up here to deny being beaten by the likes of Tyreeq Hill and Jaylen Waddle and see what happens with the Miami run game. As it happens, Miami running back Raheem Mostert comes into this match of a season best game and is probably going to see a fair amount of the ball on the road on a short week against a defence that could well keep Hill as quiet as anyone can. Whenever Mostert has had 15 or more carries, like I expect him to have here, he has gone for 121 yards (18 carries), 115 (17) and 86 (22). He has a rushing yards line of just 61.5 yards which he has covered in six of the nine games. I expect a cover here too.
Tips
Back R.Mostert – Over 61.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Coral
