The NFL 2023 season gets underway in the early hours of Friday morning but before it does there is just enough time to have a look at the player markets ahead of the campaign where there is often plenty of value to be found.
The popular markets are on the player to have the most passing yards, the most rushing yards and the most receiving ones but there are also things like most touchdowns as well as rookie and comeback player markets. Here is our take on where the value lies.
Most Passing Yards
As you would expect this market is all about Patrick Mahomes and with him being the only quarterback to clear 5,000 yards last season it is easy to see why but there is talk of an injury to Travis Kelce in the early stages of the campaign and that might be an issue with the tight end the favourite target of Mahomes. That probably won’t stop him but it might limit his numbers enough to make someone in the remainder of the market look like value.
Justin Herbert was second last season and you would imagine he, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers will all be involved in the shake up for the most passing yards this term but nobody had a better yards per attempt last season than the Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and had it not been for injury he could have picked up many more than 3,548 yards. Those came in 400 passing attempts with the top five in this statistic all having more than 600 attempts last season so were you to put half of his numbers on top of what he achieved he would be right in the mix. In Tyreeq Hill and Jaylen Waddle the Dolphins have a couple of reliable receivers so if Tua stays fit he can challenge Mahomes in this statistic.
Most Rushing Yards
Perhaps the most open of the player markets this season comes in the form of the one for the most rushing yards, a statistic which was dominated by Josh Jacobs last season but who in recent times has really been all about Derrick Henry. Neither are actually the favourite this term though. That honour goes to Nick Chubb, the Cleveland Browns running back who is expected to have a big season. I’m happy to look further down the market here though.
Tony Pollard was a 1,000 yard rusher last season despite having to share the workload with Ezekiel Elliott in an offense which was largely a passing one for much of the year. Kellen Moore has gone so the style is going to change but more importantly Elliott has gone leading Pollard as the main back in an offense which is going to focus a lot more on the run this season. Pollard had just 193 carries last season, 147 fewer than Jacobs who won with 1,653 yards, 646 yards ahead of the Dallas back. Pollard averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season so add that rate to the difference in carries with Jacobs and he ends up 120 yards ahead of him. That makes me think that with a stronger workload he is the pick of this bunch at 18/1.
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Most Receiving Yards
The market for the most receiving yards is a pretty competitive one this season as well. Justin Jefferson led the field with 1,809 yards last season but he had more catches than anyone else in the NFL and he’ll be getting double teamed and more this term as a result of that so I’m happy to look elsewhere. I was hoping to get a price on JaMarr Chase but that isn’t happening so I’ll take two against the field a little deeper in the market.
Garrett Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards last season when he had nobody reliable enough to find him regularly but now he has an elite quarterback throwing him passes I expect his catches to go up and his yards as a result of that, especially with the Jets having enough options at receiver to spread the field and avoid double coverage. I would expect him to go beyond 1,500 yards if he stays injury free and that will have him right in this market. I’ll also go with Jaylen Waddle who in just 75 catches, way less than anyone else in the top 10 in receiving yards last term, finished seventh and were teams to look to snuff out the threat of Hill and Waddle is allowed to run free he could cause some damage again, especially if Tua stays fit. He feels a big price.
Defensive Player of the Year
This is always a competitive betting heat and that is no different this year. It is led by Dallas Cowboys stud Micah Parsons and he is expected to be moved around the formation this term where he can make the biggest impacts but despite that he is a little short to me. Nick Bosa would have been on my radar but too many players see their output drop off when they land the mega bucks deal that he has signed with the San Francisco 49ers which leads me to one other.
That is Myles Garrett who has posted 16 sacks in each of the last two seasons and to the eye test at least looks to be increasing in danger to opposing quarterbacks. The Browns have put together an excellent defensive line so opposition sides can’t double up on Garrett without leaving themselves exposed elsewhere and the numbers have been excellent as a result of that. Only Bosa had more sacks than Garrett last season but those numbers could be reversed so I’ll take the Browns’ defender to snatch the award for the first time this term.
Back T.Tagovailoa Most Passing Yards (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-3)
Back T.Pollard Most Rushing Yards (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-3)
Back G.Wilson Most Receiving Yards (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-3)
Back J.Waddle Most Receiving Yards (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-3)
Back them here:
Back M.Garrett Defensive Player of the Year for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Betfred