The final game of the NFL 2024 regular season is a huge clash in the NFC North as the Detroit Lions welcome their rivals Minnesota Vikings in a winner-takes-all match which has the division title and a whole lot more on the line.
The winners of this one will win the NFC North title and claim the number one seed, have next week off and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In the brutal world of this season, the losers will drop down to the number five seed and will go away to either Tampa Bay or Atlanta next week.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have led the way throughout the season in the NFC North and as a result of that they have been the number one seed for the whole campaign but a defeat to the Buffalo Bills three weeks ago have kept the door ajar for their opponents here and now they have to slam it shut if they are going to defend the division title successfully. Detroit have a 14-2 record going into this match which in any other season would be more than enough to have at least won the division but such is the strength of the NFC North this term that isn’t the case this time around.
The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league. They can kill teams through the air with a heavy passing game and they can run all over sides as well if given the chance but it is defensively where this match might be won or lost. In the last four weeks when they have come up against a good offense in three of them they have conceded more than 30 points and that is an issue both going into this game and indeed the playoffs where only good teams will remain.
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Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings were a side that nobody really knew quite what to expect of when the season began. They had parted company with Kirk Cousins and replaced him with Sam Darnold which felt like a backwards move but that certainly hasn’t been the case with the latter all but guaranteed to be the Comeback Player of the Year. He has led the Vikings to a 14-2 record with those two defeats coming within five days of each other in a tough part of the schedule in October.
The Vikings have won nine on the spin since that little wobble and they have become masters of winning some close matches in recent times. Three of their last four wins were against teams with a winning record or against sides who were in contention to win their division so they are beating good sides which bodes well. Defensively they probably have the edge on the Lions right now but if this turns into a shootout the question will be whether they can go toe-to-toe with their hosts.
Betting
I keep looking at this match to see if I can find a way that it doesn’t turn into a shootout but try as I might I can’t find one. The reverse meeting between the two ended 31-29 to Detroit Lions and when you consider what is on the line I just don’t see how this doesn’t follow a similar pattern. The problem with that is that the bookmakers are all over that viewpoint as well and the point line is upwards of 56 which needs everything in your favour if you take the over. A field goal or a failed fourth down conversion here or there and we could be toast. I definitely wouldn’t want to play the under though.
If this is going to be the shootout I expect it to be then you would imagine that Sam Darnold is going to be throwing the ball an awful lot. It just do happens that this Detroit Lions defence can be exposed through the air and with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson among others, Darnold isn’t short of players to pass to. Darnold has a passing yards line of 288.5 for this match which he has covered in the last two Vikings matches which have had more than 56 points. He obliterated it in a 52 point game against the Green Bay Packers last week and when you consider that in recent times Brock Purdy threw for 377 yards against the Lions last week, Caleb Williams threw for 334 the week before and Josh Allen for 362 before that, quarterbacks are feasting on this Lions pass defence. There is no reason Darnold won’t add his name to the list so I’ll take his passing yards over here.
Tips
Back S.Darnold – Over 288.5 passing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
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