Week 16 of the NFL 2024 season comes to a close with the Monday Night Football which this week sends us to Lambeau Field to see if the Green Bay Packers can guarantee a playoff spot when they host the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints have already been eliminated from postseason contention so this one is all about the home team, who will be guaranteed a wildcard spot in the NFC should they win here but would still need one more win should they lose.
Green Bay Packers
Having made it all the way to the Championship game last year, the Green Bay Packers went into the season with high expectations around them but I’m not sure anyone saw the NFC North being quite as brutal as it has been this term. If you had said to many people that the Green Bay Packers would be 10-4 going into week 16 of the campaign they could be forgiven for thinking that the Packers would have their division destiny in their own hands not having already been out of contention for the NFC North title.
Green Bay have lost just two of their last 10 matches this season and both have been to the Detroit Lions so the Packers aren’t going along badly at all. The win in Seattle last week tells us that they are bubbling along nicely, not least because it was the fourth time in succession that their offense has put 30 points or more on the board. With a defence that generally comes good when we move into December, there is plenty to like about the Packers right now.
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New Orleans Saints
A season of what could have been for the New Orleans Saints rapidly turned into one to forget for them and now they go into their last three matches knowing that all they have on their side is the role of party pooper. They can’t win the NFC South and their 5-9 record is nowhere near good enough to get them anywhere near a wildcard spot. While they look ahead to next season, they have been given a primetime match to at least showcase that they have something about them.
There has actually been something of a revival from the Saints in recent weeks. They have won three of their last five matches with losses to Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders in that time not being drastically bad. It might be that with the pressure off the Saints have found some good stuff but at the same time the schedule was good. The telling statistic is that only once in those five matches has their offense put up more than 20 points and you would think they will need more than that figure to win here.
Betting
With Derek Carr still out for the New Orleans Saints and Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback in less favourable circumstances, in terms of a cold night and a top notch defence in these conditions, you would have to think that this one is all about Green Bay Packers, especially with the Saints being without their star running back Alvin Kamara too. Green Bay have really clicked into gear in the second half of the season and while I wouldn’t usually take a team to cover a two score handicap, I do think there are reasons to think the Packers will cover.
Green Bay have put up 30 points or more in each of their last four matches and if they post that total here then you would imagine it will be enough to get the job done. They could go for even more than that though because New Orleans are seemingly unable to stop running backs at the minute and the Green Bay running game is a huge hallmark of their offense. With New Orleans unlikely to post too many points against this defence we should see Green Bay storm out in front and lead by enough that even a backdoor score doesn’t stop them covering 13.5 points.
Tips
Back Green Bay Packers (-13.5) to beat New Orleans Saints for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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