The 82nd NFL Draft opens today with the 32 teams selecting players from the NCAA ranks. The 1st round takes place on Thursday and this is where much speculation lies amongst the NFL community. I will look at a few markets below trying to find some value for you.
The Cleveland Browns are almost guaranteed to take Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett with the first pick overall. He is a cross between Von Miller and Jadeveon Clowney and any other selection would be frankly stupid. Garrett’s odds of being selected number one overall are 1.13 which offers no value. Instead I will look at three markets.
NFL Draft 2017 1st Round – Second Pick
The San Francisco 49ers have the 2nd pick in the draft. They ideally want to trade down and acquire more selections from another team. However, it is rare for the number two pick to be traded because the cost is usually so prohibitive. The 49ers have a new head coach in Kyle Shananhan and have needs all over their roster including Quarterback. The QB’s in this draft don’t match up to those from the previous two or three drafts. Picking a QB at number two overall would be a major reach. The 49ers should be able to pick a QB with their first pick in round two as I expect at least one to drop to this slot.
So, what do they do with their first pick? In the last two years they have selected defensive lineman in round one (Arik Armstead in 2015 and DeForest Buckner in 2016). For the 2017 season they are switching from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense. Buckner can easily play one of the DT roles leaving a gap at DE. This could be where local player Solomon Thomas from Stanford fits as their selection. Thomas is a super pass-rusher that is also solid in run defense. He, Buckner and Armstead would form a great young trio with the potential to harass opposing QB’s and limit rushing attacks. A strong DL is the best way in the modern NFL to improve a defense overall.
The other option at this pick looks like being Jamal Adams the Safety from LSU. Adams is not the ball-player that Malik Hooker (Ohio State) is but he is a better run defence player and is probably a more reliable player i.e. will blow fewer assignments as a rookie. The 49ers do have a need at safety BUT this is probably the deepest class I’ve ever seen at Defensive Back. A number of really good safeties will be available in the third and fourth round – the DBs are that good this year.
For me Thomas is the pick.
NFL Draft 2017 1st Round – First Running Back Selected
Coming into the 2016 NCAA season this was all about Leonard Fournette (LSU). He had a spectacular 2015 season, even drawing some comparisons to the greatest NFL athlete ever – Bo Jackson. However, injuries derailed his season and then he had a poor NFL combine. Fournette was slower and less explosive at the combine than many evaluators expected. Yes, he is fast and breaks long touchdown runs but of the top 3 RBs in the class he has the least creativity to make something from nothing. In some ways he is an old-school running back – one that functions best from the I-Formation. The problem is that todays NFL is all about the shotgun or pistol formation. Running backs need to be versatile. They must run from the I-formation but also from the shotgun on draws. In addition the elite players at the position are also weapons in the passing game. It is these latter two that Fournette struggles and in the last few days another running back is starting to be seen as usurping him.
That player is Christian McCaffrey (Stanford). McCaffrey won the 2015 Heisman Trophy with a ridiculous season of over 3,500 combined yards running, receiving and returning. He also threw a couple of touchdown passes too. McCaffrey is versatility personified. He also has NFL blood lines as his father was a long-time WR with the Broncos.
The first landing spots for a RB are expected to be Jacksonville at number 4, Carolina at number 8 or Philadelphia at 14. In terms of the offenses run at those three clubs – Fournette fits best in Carolina whilst McCaffrey is perfect in Jacksonville or Philadelphia. Number 4 overall may be a little high for McCaffrey but he would be an incredible weapon for the Jaguars struggling QB Blake Bortles. He would give him an underneath weapon in the passing game that would slow down blitzes. Carolina also have needs on the DL so Fournette could slip out of the top 10.
In terms of odds Fournette is at 1.17 and McCaffrey is 6.00 to be first RB picked. In a market where one player is gaining (McCaffrey) and one falling (Fournette) I take the outsider.
NFL Draft 2017 1st Round – First Defensive Back Selected
This market is essentially a three-way battle between Safeties Jamal Adams (LSU) and Malik Hooker (Ohio State) plus Cornerback Marcus Lattimore (Ohio State). I have talked about Adams above already.
Hooker is seen as a player just scratching the surface of what he will become. He started one season in college (2016) and was a ballhawk extraordinaire with 7 interceptions. Scouts have him rated as the best ball-playing safety in a generation (since Ed Reed). Hooker does have flaws – he is inexperienced and has struggled with missing tackles. As a rookie he is more likely to make mistakes than Adams but long-term has a greater upside.
Lattimore is viewed as a future number one shutdown CB. In a very deep class he stands alone at the head of the queue at the position. He has good size, is versed in man coverage, tackles well and has good hands. Lattimore will improve an NFL defense as soon as he steps onto the field.
All three will be picked between the number 2 and 10 slots tonight. The big question is who goes first?
The 49ers at 2, Bears at 3 and Chargers at 7 have a need for a Safety. The Bears at 3, Titans at 5, Jets at 6, Bengals at 9 and Bills at 10 all have a need (to some extent) at CB. Assuming this is correct (it is how the NFL experts have assessed team needs) then it looks like a Safety will be picked first. That leaves us with Adams or Hooker. Adams is favourite in the market at 2.1 with Hooker as high as 3.75. On this I go with the bookies and expect the first safety chosen to be the ‘safe’ pick (pun intended) by the Bears.
NFL Draft 2017 1st Round – Tips
I’m only placing small stake bets as I would be happy with a small return in these markets.
Bet on Solomon Thomas to be chosen number two overall for a 1.0/10 stake at 2.62 with SkyBet.
Back him here:
Bet on Christian McCaffrey to be the first RB selected with a 1.0/10 stake at 6.0 with Betfred.
Back him here:
WON – Bet on Jamal Adams to be the first DB selected with a 1.0/10 stake at 2.10 with Ladbrokes.
Back him here:
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