It is the last day of the ATP Tour season on Sunday as the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals comes to an end when the final of the singles and the doubles draws are played out on what should be a great day of tennis in Turin.
It isn’t usually the case but we have the number one seeds in both draws through to the final which should ensure that the quality is high over the course of the day. Two outsiders will be looking to deny the established stars of the title.
Kevin Krawietz & Tim Puetz vs Marcelo Arevalo & Mate Pavic
The doubles final will see the lowest seeds in the tournament in the German pair of Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz taking on the number one pairing of the year in Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic with both teams looking to win the title for the first time.
I thought the German pair had given themselves little chance in the semi-finals when they battled hard in a match that didn’t mean anything to round off their group phase the day before but to their credit they had enough in the tank and came through nicely to get to this final. Arevalo and Pavic have ridden their luck a little this week having been behind the eight ball after losing to the Germans in the opening match of the tournament. They have had to win a deciding tiebreak in their final group game to get through and then came out on top in two tiebreaks in the semi-final to take their place in this trophy showdown. The number one seeds are favourites for this final but this has been a regular match throughout the year and it is the German pairing who have a 4-2 lead, 4-1 on a hard court including wins at the Australian Open, US Open and here so there is certainly value in the German side here but I just worry that they are beginning to run out of steam so I’ll leave it alone.
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Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz
The final match of the ATP Tour season will be a repeat of the US Open final as the world number one Jannik Sinner takes on one of the most improved players of the year in Taylor Fritz for the second time this week after the pair met in the group phase.
Sinner won that match in straight sets, as he did the final of the US Open and he hasn’t looked like being stopped this week. It goes without saying that Fritz has his work cut out here, not least because he has been to a deciding set in the last two matches and has looked like he is running out of petrol in the tank. Sinner has picked and chosen events more and more since the US Open and visibly looks the fresher of the two players. The Italian is on a 13 match winning streak and in front of a home crowd it is hard to see him not winning this final but at around the 1/8 mark we’re not going to get rich backing him. I think the better bet comes in the form of under 22.5 games. Fritz lost all five sets in the last two matches and only one went past 6-4 which was when Sinner was on the verge of the US Open title. Sinner hasn’t gone beyond 6-4 in any set this week and with the game on game pressure that is going to be on the Fritz serve I think Sinner gets it done in straight sets before we get to game 23.
Tips
Back J.Sinner vs T.Fritz – Under 22.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Boylesports
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