It is semi-final day at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals on Saturday with the singles and the doubles last four action being played out in Turin as we get closer to deciding who will win the last tournament of the season.
We’ve seen plenty of shocks in the group stage in both draws but we do have the number one seeds in both which should ensure that we have some really quality on show throughout what is always a dramatic day.
Afternoon Session
Kevin Krawietz & Tim Puetz vs Max Purcell & Jordan Thompson
The opening semi-final in the doubles draw sees the lowest seed into the event in the German pair of Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz going up against the Australian pair of Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson, the US Open champions.
This semi-final is a repeat of the final of the US Open so the Germans will be up for revenge while the Australians will look to double down on that win. I think it is fair to say that neither of these pairings were expected to challenge for the title coming into the week but one of them is going to be in the final. Midway through the week you would have given the German pair the edge here. They were playing excellent tennis but they are massively disadvantaged by playing on Friday and for some reason they battled hard to force a third set and an extended match even though win or lose they would have been in this match. This has been a long season and freshness is a huge thing so I have to give the Australians the edge, not least because they won that US Open as well. They are the favourites though and that is right but I’m not interested at cramped prices.
Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz
The singles semi-final in the afternoon session will see the world number two Alexander Zverev going up against the US Open finalist Taylor Fritz in what is likely to be a serve dominated match to determine who will go through to the final on Sunday.
Fritz has taken care of Zverev at the last two Grand Slams and he has beaten him in the Laver Cup since then as well. I wouldn’t necessarily take any notice of the Laver Cup match because it is largely an exhibition but it was in Germany so for Fritz to win that match tells us that this is a matchup he enjoys. I do think it is plainly obvious that Zverev has improved since then. He was excellent in Paris before this tournament and he has breezed through a tough group without dropping a set. Fritz has lost to Jannik Sinner and needed three sets to beat Alex de Minaur this week so I think the German is a worthy favourite despite their last three meetings. He is too short to me but I expect the serve to be on top here. Zverev has needed a tiebreak in the first set of his last two wins and Fritz is no stranger to powering his way to tiebreaks either. In the two Grand Slam meetings earlier in the year four of the nine sets, including the first in New York, went the distance and the 11/5 that the opening set here goes the same way is just too big.
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Evening Session
Harri Heliovaara & Henry Patten vs Marcelo Arevalo & Mate Pavic
The evening semi-final in the doubles draw sees the number one seeds Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic looking to make it through to the final when they go up against arguably the most impressive pairing of the week in Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten, the Wimbledon champions.
The Finn-Brit pair beat the men from El Salvador and Croatia in the quarter finals on their way to that Wimbledon success but the number one seeds got their revenge in Cincinnati. It might be that the top seeds have a bit of an advantage here in that they have already played a knockout match this week when they had to beat the Italian pair of Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori in the last group game on Friday to make it through to this semi-final. They were pushed the distance in that match too so that bodes well for them. I suspect that, along with the fact that they have been the best team over the year by a fair distance, will serve them well here but Heliovaara and Patten are dangerous enough to just take a watching brief on this one.
Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud
The singles semi-final in the evening session will see Jannik Sinner looking to make it into the final of this tournament but a second year in succession when he goes up against Casper Ruud, the beaten finalist in it the year prior to that.
Ruud probably wouldn’t have been expected to come out of a group which had the form horse of Alexander Zverev and the starlet Carlos Alcaraz in it but the Norwegian ripped that script up but one problem he might have is he had to endure a three-setter against Andrey Rublev on Friday night and that isn’t ideal preparation against a fresh Sinner who hasn’t dropped a set this week and who looks as fresh as a daisy and playing insanely good tennis. From a neutral point of view, I hope we see a really good match here. That might be unlikely though because these two have met twice in the past, in 2020 and 2021, and Sinner won in straight sets on both occasions and he is infinitely better now than he was three years ago and Ruud might not be on the down curve of his very best form. Hopefully Ruud rises to the occasion but I don’t see anything other than a Sinner win here but at a best price of 1/8 to win and 2/5 to win in straight sets I can easily leave this one alone.
Tips
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