The European Tour season continues as the bandwagon moves from Holland to Italy this week for the Open d’Italia in the wonderful city of Milan.
After a low scoring week in the Low Countries things are expected to tighten up this week as the Tour returns to one of its tightest tracks.
With that in mind a decent field has been assembled all with the aim of banking cash on the Race to Dubai rankings and trying to take Hennie Otto’s title.
The Golf Club Milano is the venue this week. The course hasn’t staged this tournament since 1990 so we haven’t got an awful lot of form to go on but a quick look at the overhead pictures of the track shows us that it is heavily treelined and that some of the fairways are undulating so in that respect there are shades of Wentworth and Crans-sur-Sierre in the course.
It isn’t a particularly long course given that is a par 72 measuring 7,159 yards and all four par 5s should be reachable but with the fairways narrow and needing to be found and the greens quite tight in width and occasionally deep in depth I don’t anticipate scoring being as low as it was last week.
All eyes will be on the home hope Francesco Molinari this week and he is the 12/1 favourite to land his national title. He won this tournament in 2006 and has three other top 10 finishes in it and while he has largely been playing in the States this year he reminded us of his quality at this level with top 10s in France and the BMW PGA.
Molinari isn’t the only top name in this field. Danny Willett and Martin Kaymer are also teeing it up and they are the joint second favourites to land the title at 14/1. This will be the second week in a row that Kaymer has played in Europe which adds to the profile of the tour. Bernd Wiesberger, winner of the Open de France, plays here and is 16/1.
Given the similarity to Crans-sur-Sierre this place has I came close to backing Danny Willett this week but his four week break puts me off at the prices so instead I will take the man who chased him home in Switzerland in the form of Matthew Fitzpatrick.
I took Fitzpatrick last week but the scoring was a bit lower than I expected and he couldn’t quite get into contention but I remain convinced he is going to be the real deal and it is only a matter of time before he wins at this level on his way to great things.
There is no weakness in Fitzpatrick’s game but his two main strengths are his driving and his iron play and this course is set up demanding for both facets so that alone should get him into contention. Sometimes inexperience on the greens can be his undoing but nobody has experience of them this week so that’s a positive and at a similar price to last week I’m happy to take him again.
Another man I took last week was Alejandro Canizares and despite him finishing one shot out of placing for me I’m happy to take him again here too.
Like with Fitzpatrick the low scoring probably wasn’t ideally suited to the Spaniard but his record at Wentworth and indeed in Switzerland shows us this course should set up nice for him.
Tee to green Canizares is right up there at this level and when he’s on the greens he’s solid as a rock. He wasn’t too far away from a real big week last week but that tune up may well have primed him for a bumper week in Italy.
They are my main bets but I’m going to have a couple of stabs in the dark at longer prices. The first of those comes in the shape of someone who was very strong last week and who I’ve been a fan of before and that is Fabrizio Zanotti.
Zanotti won on a track which was relatively treelined in Germany last year and he has gone well at Wentworth in the past including earlier this year. In Holland last week his fourth placed finish was built on being in the top 10 off the tee and right up there in greens hit too. His putting was solid as well but he just found a couple too good for him in what became a shootout.
This tournament isn’t likely to be like that. I would imagine the winning score would be a bit lower this week which should suit the Paraguayan better even though he showed when he won in Germany he is capable of going low if the need arises. With his tee to green game he shouldn’t be far away this week.
Finally I’m going to have a go with Anders Hansen at a big price. The Dane hasn’t had the best of years but this course could suit him better. Although they have been on different tracks to this one Hansen has five top 10 finishes in this tournament so there is something about Italy that brings his A game out.
If his A game comes out this week he has the credentials to go close. He is solid from tee to green and these smaller greens should help his putting. As a two time winner around Wentworth we know these tight treelined tracks suit him well and at a three figure price it is worth paying to see if he delivers the goods this week.
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Open d’Italia (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-5)
Back A.Canizares to win Open d’Italia (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back F.Zanotti to win Open d’Italia (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Back A.Hansen to win Open d’Italia (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-5)
