After their dramatic defeat in Dubai, England have it all to do if they are to save their ongoing Test series with Pakistan. Misbah’s side finally got over the line in the previous Test to take a 1-0 lead with one to play so England head to Sharjah on Sunday knowing they have to win or they will lose the series.
In many ways this is a dangerous match for Pakistan not only because England have nothing to lose but the hosts are in the strange position of not knowing to stick or twist.
Sharjah Cricket Stadium is the venue for this final match of the series. The positive news for England is that in the seven previous matches here there has only been one draw so there is every chance there will be a result in this match. In fact of all the venues in the series this one offers the best chance of a positive result.
Pakistan are going to be forced into at least one change as Imran Khan has been ruled out with a hand injury. Rahat Ali or Junaid Khan are the men most likely to be called up to replace him. Bilal Asif could also come into the side now that his bowling action has been cleared.
England are going to make changes too. It has been confirmed that Mark Wood has been rested to manage his ankle complaint ahead of the cricket to come. Liam Plunkett or Chris Jordan could be the men to replace him although Samit Patel is another option. The rumour mill suggests that England are also going to rest Jos Buttler. James Taylor is the natural replacement for him with Bairstow keeping wicket.
In fairness to Pakistan they have been really solid in this series apart from that second innings in Abu Dhabi. I guess you could say the same about England and their first innings in Dubai but I suspect this match will be played at a much higher intensity purely given what is at stake.
England have to win the match and if they are to do that they will have to take a risk or two with the bat which isn’t ideal but they are going to have to attack with the ball and it could be that Pakistan get away from them at some point. I’m still not convinced England can play spin well enough to win the match though which is a concern.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Pakistan to win but I’m already on them to win the series so I have them and the draw on my side and I’m going to keep it that way I think. I will head into the match with three value bets though.
The first two come through batsmen in the ‘to make 50 in the first innings’ market. Alastair Cook has notched up first innings scores of 263 and 65 in this series and has looked really good in both innings. Generally when England’s captain is in good nick he fills his boots for a while and he usually comes good when England need him the most so I’m expecting another big contribution from him here.
Pakistan’s bowling attack sets up well to Cook with the main seamer being a left armer and both main spinners turning the ball into his pads so England’s captain has everything he needs for another big contribution in his side’s first innings here.
Pakistan aren’t without form batsmen themselves and one of them who has really impressed in this series is Asad Shafiq. Shafiq has produced runs of 107 and 83 in the first innings in the first two matches and has looked calm and composed at the crease.
Shafiq is currently Pakistan’s leading scorer in the series and just for good measure added a second innings half century to his total in Dubai. Given the form he has shown he looks overpriced to make it to 50 again here.
Looking at the bowling and Pakistan’s attack looks all about two men to me. Wahab Riaz has bowled his heart out at times in this series but with this the third Test in as many weeks it remains to be seen how his energy levels are and I just wonder if he has another big spell in him.
We don’t need to worry about that with Yasir Shah. He missed the first Test but he has a lovely action which doesn’t take a lot out of him and I expect him to go well here. This wicket is going to be conducive to spin I’m pretty sure of that so even at 7/4 Shah, fresh off eight wickets in Dubai, looks the value in the Pakistan bowling markets.
Back A.Cook to score 50+ in 1st inns for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Ladbrokes
Back A.Shafiq to scorer 50+ in 1st inns for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Stan James
Back Y.Shah Top Pakistan 1st Inns Bowler for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Bet365
Blog cricket YTD: +21.64pts
