After incredibly one sided T20 and ODI series, West Indies finish their awful tour of Pakistan with a three match Test series in which they will need to dramatically up their game if they are to avoid a repeat of the limited overs matches.
Pakistan are having a bit of a tussle with India for the number one spot in the ICC Test rankings and a dominant series from them here would strengthen their position in that battle.
Schedule
1st Test: 13-17 Oct at Dubai (day/night)
2nd Test: 21-15 Oct at Abu Dhabi
3rd Test: 30 Oct – 3 Nov at Sharjah
Pakistan
Pakistan are on a really good run in Test cricket at the minute. They have only lost one of their last 10 series in this format of the game and that was in Sri Lanka where Australia recently had a nightmare so there was no shame in that. If there is a criticism of them it is that they draw too many series but that is largely conditions based.
Pakistan looked a very convincing side in conditions which were slightly alien to them in England. They are a well led side under Misbah and they are going to take quite a bit of beating at the moment no matter how strong the opponent is. Pakistan have a bowling attack for all conditions as we saw in England recently.
West Indies
You have to go back a long way for the last time the West Indies looked remotely competitive in this format of the game. The only West Indies win in their last 10 Test series was a low key home one against Bangladesh back in 2014. They have lost five of their last six series too so confidence in this format can’t be overly high.
If there is one positive for them going into this series it is that conditions shouldn’t be too alien to them with pitches in the West Indies getting lower and slower by the day. West Indies have also had a couple of warm up matches for this series and their senior players have been here for a month playing limited overs cricket so they can’t be caught out by conditions.
Head to Head
These two have been involved in 15 previous Test series. West Indies have just had the slight edge on them historically with five wins to Pakistan’s four. There have been six drawn series too. You have to go back to the year 2000 for the last time West Indies won a series against Pakistan. West Indies have only won one series away to Pakistan though with three draws and three defeats.
In terms of individual matches Pakistan have the edge with 16 wins to 15 defeats and 15 draws but in matches where Pakistan have been at home they have been much more dominant. They have nine wins and eight draws in the 21 matches.
Odds
Pakistan are no bigger than 1/9 to win the series and based on what we’ve seen on this tour so far that is entirely justified. There is no chance of rain saving the tourists but you can still get 10/1 on a draw while West Indies are 25/1 to surprise everyone with a series win. Pakistan are 5/4 to win 3-0.
Azhar Ali is the 2/1 favourite to be the leading Pakistan batsman in the series with the captain Misbah ul-Haq 4/1 and Babar Azam 9/2 after his fantastic ODI series. Marlon Samuels is a 3/1 favourite in the respective West Indian market with Darren Bravo 7/2 along with Kraigg Brathwaite. As expected the spinners dominate the bowling markets. Yasir Shah is 11/10 to be the top Pakistan bowler with Devendra Bishoo 6/4 to be the leading West Indian bowler.
Betting
Clearly barring something pretty extraordinary Pakistan are going to win this series and so the only question is how many they will win it by. There isn’t going to be any rain to save the West Indies so they are going to have to play five full days of tough cricket to get any kind of positive result. There’s nothing we’ve seen recently to suggest they are capable of that.
With all of that in mind I can’t see past 3-0 Pakistan here. They look a much more solid unit that is more reliable these days and at odds against it looks the obvious bet here. Nothing much stands out in terms of player markets that I’d want my cash invested in over the space of a month although if I knew now that Carlos Brathwaite would definitely play all three matches I might be interested in him as the top West Indies bowler but I don’t so I’m not.
Tips
Back Pakistan to win 3-0 for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power
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