The Sid Waddell Trophy will be lifted inside the Alexandra Palace on Monday evening when Michael Smith meets Peter Wright in the final of the PDC World Darts Championship, with the winner not just hoisting the silverware aloft but also walking away with a cool £500,000 for their efforts.
Both these two men have oozed class throughout the competition and now they battle it out for their legacy as well as all the other benefits that come with being crowned world champion. It is the first to seven sets on what should be a pulsating night of darts.
Michael Smith
The 2019 finalist Michael Smith has been the player of the tournament so far. He has averaged over 100 in most of his matches and has taken care of three of the top eight players in the world rankings in Jonny Clayton, world number one Gerwyn Price and James Wade. He has shown his class throughout those matches with a barrage of heavy scoring. That is probably what we would expect from ‘Bully Boy’ but what we might not have expected as much was the composure he has shown on his doubles.
The other thing we’ve seen from Smith is the ability to hold his nerve when behind. He trailed Clayton 2-0 before coming back to win 4-3 and was behind four times against Price before getting the better of him. The confidence that will have given him can’t be underplayed and if he can control what will be inevitable nerves at various points in this final then the St Helens man is entitled to launch a serious tilt at his first world title.
Peter Wright
The 2020 champion Peter Wright is looking to regain the title and elevate himself in status by becoming a multiple world champion. He might have added motivation to get the Sid Waddell Trophy back because the first time he had it in his clutches he couldn’t really celebrate it because two months later the world shut down and he was almost a quiet world champion. Wright will also be looking to achieve the tricky distinction of winning the World Matchplay and World Championship crowns within six months.
We have seen signs of the darts which took him to that World Matchplay crown in this tournament too. He had to repel one of the hardest challenges anyone could have faced from Callan Rydz in the quarter final and then in the semi-final he overcame another strong opponent in Gary Anderson in a match where ‘Snakebite’ hit 24 180s in a truly special display. That level of darts is going to take a lot of beating if Wright can replicate it.
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Head to Head
These two are familiar foes. They have met on 37 previous occasions and it is Wright who holds a significant advantage in those outings. He has 23 wins to the 12 of Smith and they have drawn twice in the Premier League. On TV that Wright dominance is even greater with 13 wins to three and Wright also won their only previous meeting at the World Championship when he came through a deciding set to win 4-3 in the third round in 2014. It doesn’t get much better for Smith in finals history either. They have played in three of those and Wright has won the lot. Wright also won two of their three battles in 2021 including at the World Matchplay where he won 16-7 in the quarter final and the Grand Slam where he was a 16-12 semi-final winner. History is very much on the side of the Scot in this final.
Betting
I think this might well be the time for Michael Smith to achieve what we have all known he is capable of for a while and land this world title. The longer this final goes the more I like him because although Wright got the better of Anderson on Sunday night, he didn’t seem quite as relentless towards the end of the match as he was at the beginning of it, save for what was the final set when he mustered up a huge effort to get the job done on throw. Smith should be the fresher of the two both physically with Wright claiming an issue in his knee, and mentally having had a relatively easy time of it in the semi-final. I also think he can play with a bit more freedom because at 31 there are plenty more world finals in Smith. At 51, opportunities like this aren’t as guaranteed for Wright. In what looks a fairly even battle the odds against on Smith looks good to me.
One thing I do expect this final to have is a whole bunch of 180s. Wright hit 24 of them on his own on Sunday night and there is no way in the world Smith isn’t going to contribute to the 180 count. Those Wright 180s came in 10 sets of darts and you’ve got to think this final will be so tight we’ll get even more sets here. Smith has hit 16 180s in his last two matches, both of which were in just nine sets so while the 32.5 180s line looks daunting, when you consider how well these two are scoring it is hard to see it not being covered unless someone has an absolute no show out of nowhere. I don’t see that happening and if we only get 11 sets in this final it is just an average of three per set with one on top. I think it will be tighter than that though. In the Grand Slam a couple of months ago these two combined for 29 180s in 28 legs of darts. This line just isn’t high enough.
I’ll also seek out a bit of value in the tournament winning double market where the price on double 5 has me interested for a second in a row. It was the double which Gerwyn Price won his first world title on and I wouldn’t be surprised to see nerves take Michael Smith round the houses from tops all the way to double five before he lands the crown. Even if I’m wrong about Smith winning the match, Wright is an emotional sort and he might have a few nerves at the winning line which gets him around to that double as well. Both men are pretty good D5 hitters should they get there so the 20/1 that double five is the winning double will do me.
Tips
Back M.Smith to beat P.Wright for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Coral
Back him here:
WON – Back Over 32.5 180s for a 5/10 stake at 1.80 with BetVictor
Back it here:
Back Double 5 – Winning Double for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with William Hill
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