The biggest night of darts of the year is upon us as on Tuesday evening the Sid Waddell Trophy will be lifted and a new world number one crowned as Michael Smith meets Michael van Gerwen in the PDC World Darts Championship final.
These two met in the final in 2019 when van Gerwen won out a 7-3 winner and the Dutchman is the favourite to win this time around too. Smith was beaten in the final last year and will hope it is third time lucky for him.
Michael Smith
When the tournament began, Michael Smith was seen as one of the favourites to win the title after he ended his TV tournament duck at the Grand Slam. He made the final last year and was on the verge of winning the title until Peter Wright produced a three set burst of incredible darts. Up until the semi-final I don’t think we had seen the best of Smith in this tournament but a reason why he is making the latter stages of these big events now is that his B game is much stronger.
The semi-final win over Gabriel Clemens saw Smith lay a marker down that he is ready to win this title. He found the scoring power which had not been with him in the earlier stages of the tournament and that scoring power will keep him competitive here. He will need to finish well because we know he is going to be under pressure when the chances come along but he looks ready to win this title which is important.
Michael van Gerwen
Michael van Gerwen started the tournament as the favourite to win it and he has never lost that tag. He has lived up to it in full with a brilliant campaign so far. He has put in 100+ averages regularly and has delivered some set statistics which make the eyes water they have been so good. He has also won his last 12 sets going into this final so if anyone will be confident heading into this match then it is the former champion.
I guess that is the biggest edge that van Gerwen has over Smith – the knowledge of knowing what it takes to get his hands on this trophy. The one concern over van Gerwen would be that he hasn’t really been pushed in the tournament and so we don’t know exactly how he will react if he gets put under pressure. The way he is playing though Smith is going ot have to go some to get him under pressure for us to find out.
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Head to head
These two have met a huge 49 times in their career with van Gerwen having had the better of it with 37 wins to the 12 of Smith. 24 of those matches have been on television and to be fair to Smith he only trails 17-7 in those games. This will be their second meeting at the World Championship. Van Gerwen won their previous one in the 2019 final when he triumphed 7-3. This will be the 12th time they have met in a final with van Gerwen having won eight of the previous 11. This pair met eight times in 2022 and van Gerwen came out on top five times to the three of Smith. History tells us van Gerwen is a good thing but more recently things have got more level.
Betting
I think it is going to be extremely tough for Michael Smith to win this match because Michael van Gerwen is looking awesome right now but I do expect the Grand Slam champion to ask questions of the man who is looking for a fourth title here. I think the bookmakers have the handicaps about right and a lot of the other lines look on the money too but for Smith to have any chance in this final he has to score big and he will be fully aware of that.
That is the line I am taking for this final because Smith has to plough in the 180s to have any chance in this match and at 10/11 for him to hit more than 16.5 of them I think that is likely to happen. He cleared this line in eight sets on Saturday night and you would have to think he will get at least eight sets to clear it again here, if not a few more on top. Smith hit 24 180s in the final last year and should be more settled going onto the stage this year so I see him reaching at least 17 before this one is done.
Tips
Back M.Smith – Over 16.5 180s for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor
Back him here:
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