It is crunch time on the European Tour this week as those outside the top 110 in the Race to Dubai rankings head to Portugal to try and win the money they need at the Portugal Masters to get in that select group to keep their tour cards for next season. Anyone outside the top 110 after this tournament will lose their card so there is all to play for.
That isn’t the only thing on offer this week. As well as a prestigious tournament, a decent first prize and the trophy, there are also places in the Final Series up for grabs. Players need to be in the top 60 of the R2D rankings at the end of the tournament to be eligible for the final three events of the season so we’re guaranteed an action packed event.
Recent Winners
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alexander Levy (36 holes)
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
2010 – Richard Green
2009 – Lee Westwood
2008 – Alvaro Quiros
2007 – Steve Webster
The Course
The Victoria Golf de Clube has staged this tournament ever since its inception and it is once again the host this week. The resort track is a scoring paradise with Sullivan winning on 23 under par last year.
The reasons for that are simple. The fairways are among the widest played on Tour all year and the greens are large and hard to miss so the event soon turns into a putting contest and the star players who’ve graced this tournament in the past have royally filled their boots.
The course itself is a par 71 which measures 7,146 yards so it isn’t particularly long and it will reward aggressive golf as we’ve seen with the last two winners. Putting is going to be a big thing this week so form horses who are putting well are the ones I want on my side.
The Field
Two of the beaten European Ryder Cup team tee it up this week with Thomas Pieters and the defending champion Andy Sullivan in the field. They are joined by last week’s winner Alex Noren who has honoured his entry despite such a big win.
European stalwarts Tommy Fleetwood, Nicolas Colsaerts, Peter Hanson, David Horsey, Robert Karlsson, Anthony Wall, Padraig Harrington and Thomas Bjorn are also in what is a competitive field.
Market Leaders
Ryder Cup star Thomas Pieters is the well backed 7/1 favourite to win the tournament and I can understand why. If a course fits a player this one should suit him and I’m expecting a big run from the Belgian. The only thing stopping me from backing him is the price.
Is there a hotter golfer in Europe right now than Alex Noren? I’m not so sure there is. The British Masters champion can be backed at 15/2 to win on back to back weeks. If he were to win then he would be in the winners enclosure for the fourth time this season. Again only the price puts me off.
There is no doubting the form of Tommy Fleetwood right now. The Englishman is 16/1 along with Andy Sullivan to win the tournament. I’m not completely convinced that Fleetwood holes enough putts to win an event like this but if the putter gets hot he’ll take some stopping. Sullivan defends a title in mainland Europe for the first time and that always adds a different complexion on things so he isn’t for me. It is 25/1 bar that quartet this week.
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. As I intimated above I’m looking for form horses who are putting well and David Horsey certainly fits that bill. His last five tournaments have seen him record four top 12 finishes with the exception being the shortened tournament in Germany so there is no doubting his form right now.
The key reason for that is how well he has been putting. His putts per GIR ranking in those five tournaments read 18th, 12th, 32nd, 2nd and 3rd and with these greens difficult to miss that is a really telling statistic. If the short stick continues to cooperate I’m expecting Horsey to go well this week.
Another player with similar statistics is Joakim Lagergren. I saw him on the first tee in the second round last week and he looked a very relaxed and confident golfer and it isn’t hard to see why. He now has four top 20 finishes in his last seven tournaments despite a Horlicks of a first round last week.
He begins this week eighth for putts per GIR on the European Tour this year and ranked 13th best in that statistic on difficult greens at The Grove last week. He is in a good patch of form at the minute and this course should be set up perfectly for his aggressive game. He should be right in the mix.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three at big prices as there is a history of big priced winners in this tournament. Two of them fit the criteria above and one is a player playing at home who is big enough to chance.
Julien Quesne has shown up with some form at times this season and twice in the last couple of months he has finished second for putts per GIR which is clearly a stat I’m interested in this week. He was second at the Omega European Masters in that statistic and again last week at the British Masters so if he can find enough greens in the right number, and these greens aren’t hard to find, he should be in business.
Alvaro Quiros is a former winner around here and we shouldn’t be overly surprised about that because this is the course he is now affiliated with. We’re taking a massive leap of faith that a return home inspires something from him but we did see in Dubai earlier in the year that there is something close to a competitive game there.
An opening 71 on a tricky golf course last week suggests that he is still swinging it ok. This is a much easier test than that one was so I’ll have a small go at the Spaniard at a big price for a man playing a course he should know every inch of.
One man who caught my eye last week was Justin Walters. One reason for that was I was expecting to see Danny Willett but the South African was there in his place. Given how late he got into that tournament his showing was pretty decent it must be said and interestingly he was seventh in putts per GIR despite not him not having had much in the way of practice time which has to be a positive.
Walters has previously been second around here back in 2013 and that is definitely a positive and with his form beginning to trend in the right direction I’ll give him a go at another huge price.
Tips
Back D.Horsey to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back J.Lagergren to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Quesne to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Quiros to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Walters to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2016
