The Premier League season gets underway on Friday evening but before it does there is just enough time to take a look at one of the more popular markets for any top flight campaign, the top goalscorer one where so many top stars are competing.
Erling Haaland nailed the golden boot for the second season in succession last season and he will be looking for a hat trick of titles but there is a feeling that there are a few more dangers for him this time around.
Recent Winners
2023-24 – Erling Haaland
2022-23 – Erling Haaland
2021-22 – Mo Salah & Son Heung-min
2020-21 – Harry Kane
2019-20 – Jamie Vardy
2018-19 – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mo Salah & Sadio Mane
2017-18 – Mo Salah
2016-17 – Harry Kane
2015-16 – Harry Kane
2014-15 – Sergio Aguero
The Favourites
Erling Haaland is a goal machine but he isn’t a robot and there is always a chance that he gets injured. If he doesn’t then you would imagine that the 4/6 about him top scoring this term is a pretty done deal but were he to miss a few weeks, he only had five goals in hand when topping the charts last season and that gap would certainly close. You could also argue that the supply line is thinning a touch with Julian Alvarez having left while Kevin de Bruyne is getting no younger. You probably are still betting odds on that the Norwegian stays fit though.
If he doesn’t when Mo Salah would be the second favourite. He has won this title or got a share of it three times in his Liverpool career but that was all under Jurgen Klopp and while the consensus is that Arne Slot isn’t going to do anything daft in terms of ripping it all up and starting again, it will be tough for Liverpool to be as dynamic under a new coach. Salah is a 12/1 shot for those who fancy him but the Saudi talk is only getting louder and that’s a concern.
Alexander Isak has been backed down in a lot of places but there are still shoots of 16/1 available about the Sweden international. The immediately appealing thing about Isak is that Newcastle aren’t in Europe so he should be fresher than many in this market throughout the campaign and he is a penalty taker as well which is a massive plus. If you wanted a negative it might be that Eddie Howe isn’t guaranteed to stay there either because of the changes upstairs or should England come calling but Isak looks an each way bet to nothing if he stays fit.
There are a trio of 20/1 shots in this market this season and they are Dominic Solanke, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer. The latter is probably going to be marked a lot closer this season and has a new manager where there are questions over whether his formation would suit Palmer while Watkins has Champions League football this term and didn’t have much of a break between seasons which I always think is an issue for a striker who relies on movement. Solanke would be my pick of the three but Spurs will surely share the goals around.
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Profile
If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t always need to be on someone who is going to play for a champion side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the sweeter as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Betting
I’ll play three in the market this season. I have to admit I am quite keen on Alexander Isak. He looks to have the lot to me. He can score in the air, can power past players, has a long range shot on him and he’s on penalties for Newcastle and just as importantly there is a decent supply line for him via the likes of Kieran Trippier, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes among others. Isak was third in this market last year when he was managed because of Champions League football and the odd niggle but I’d be amazed if he isn’t a lot more of the main man this time around and with a lighter schedule he should fill his boots.
The other two are outsider bets and they are Jean-Philippe Mateta and Chris Wood. The former probably hasn’t been helped by the departure of Michael Olise but Ismaela Sarr isn’t the worst replacement in the world in terms of getting past a man and getting something into the box. Mateta has come alive under Oliver Glasner, had a wonderful Olympics to boost his confidence and might not be too far away from the French national team if he can start the season well. He feels a big price, as does Chris Wood who in 31 games last season, of which only 20 were starts, he scored 14 Premier League goals. I think he has done enough to be the main number nine ahead of Taiwo Awoniyi and with the likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White, Nicolas Dominguez and others creating for him the supply line will be regular. He only needs to improve by five goals to make the frame from the last two seasons and if he starts most of the 18 games he didn’t last term in this campaign you would think they naturally come.
Tips
Back A.Isak Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back J-P.Mateta Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Spreadex (1/4 1-4)
Back C.Wood Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
