The Premier League Darts roadshow heads into continental Europe this week for night nine of the campaign where Berlin will be the host of the eight players who go in search of more league points and that £10,000 nightly prize.
We move into the second half of the season on Thursday night and every point is beginning to matter from here on in so we should be in for yet another tasty evening of darts with the eight stars sure to produce top quality arrers.
Nathan Aspinall vs Stephen Bunting
The opening quarter final in Berlin sees a Nathan Aspinall looking for two big points in his quest for a spot at the o2 next month going up against a player who can probably play with a bit of freedom from here on in, in the shape of Stephen Bunting.
This has been a season to forget for Bunting and at the halfway point we can be fairly confident that unless something absolutely crazy happens he will be watching finals night from his sofa but he has personal pride and he’ll know that people are saying he shouldn’t be in this tournament because of his results. That is nonsense but he will still have motivation to shut those people up. The pressure though is all on Aspinall in this one. If he can win here and then claim victory in the semi-final he could end the night back in the top four. To be fair to ‘The Asp’ he played well in Newcastle last week, hot off the heels of his victory in the European Tour event the weekend before, but prior to that he had averaged in the 80s for the two previous Premier League weeks. Bunting was bang ordinary a couple of weeks ago when a bunch of missed doubles brought his average down but if he is playing with freedom now it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if the doubles begin to land and he is more dangerous as a result. Over the eight weeks, Bunting still has a 2.66pt higher average than Aspinall for the tournament. Aspinall did win their previous Premier League meeting but Bunting won their three matches prior to that and while I wouldn’t say the scouser is value here, he is a backable price to get his first win of the season against an inconsistent Aspinall.
Luke Humphries vs Rob Cross
The second quarter final of the night sees second placed Luke Humphries looking to launch a chase to catch Luke Littler at the top of the table when he goes up against the man who has been a pain in his side in recent times in Rob Cross.
Cross has a wonderful record against Humphries recently. He has won seven of their 10 meetings going back to the beginning of last year and in the Humphries win in the Premier League this season he only lost in a deciding leg. Cross then got his revenge the following week so Voltage doesn’t fear Cool Hand at all. You wonder what the motivation will truly be for Humphries between now and the o2. While I’m sure he would like to finish top, he must surely appreciate that Littler is going to be hard to catch now and there is no way that the former world champion won’t make the top four of the table so his motivation might be elsewhere, especially in weeks like this where there is a European Tour event at the end of it. Cross is playing decent darts at the minute and he has shown he can live with Humphries and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the upset here but given that I’d fancy Cross to beat either Aspinall or Bunting in the semi-final I think I’d rather take the much bigger price on Cross winning the night rather than risking more on an upset where Cross is the outsider, albeit a perfectly live one.
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Chris Dobey vs Luke Littler
The penultimate quarter final in Berlin sees Chris Dobey looking to launch a late challenge for a top four spot when he goes up against the runaway leader and seemingly impossible to stop defending champion Luke Littler for a spot in the last four of the evening.
Clearly Dobey is up against it here. He has only won one match since the opening night of the season and that was against a Stephen Bunting who missed a host of doubles to get the better of him. Dobey is scoring well though. He has hit 36 180s in 11 matches this term so he has the scoring power to go with Littler but he’ll need to improve his finishing to beat him. I don’t expect Dobey to get anything here. I don’t think Littler will steamroll everyone for the next eight weeks but he does look to be playing brilliantly right now and will look to strike while the iron is hot. Littler has averaged over a ton in his last three quarter finals and that should get the job done here but once again not enough respect is being paid to the quality of Littler by the bookmakers in terms of the inflation rate to the opponent average. We saw it last week where Bunting averaged 102.15 because Littler only allowed him four darts at a double and in the legs Littler dominates, and there is often 2-3 of them, the opponent doesn’t get a go at a finish and his average inflates as a result. In eight quarter finals this season, only Nathan Aspinall hasn’t averaged over 95.5 against Littler and I’m not convinced Aspinall truly thinks he can beat his young stablemate so on that line I’ve got to back Dobey, who averaged 100.21 in a last leg defeat to Littler in night five, to register a three dart average in excess of 95.5 here.
Michael van Gerwen vs Gerwyn Price
It might be that we save the best for last in terms of standout quality from both players in the quarter finals as the last one up will see the third placed overall Michael van Gerwen going up against the player one spot below him in the main table in Gerwyn Price.
Bookmakers have this as a pick ‘em contest and many go 10/11 each of two which feels fair. Van Gerwen has won six of his eight quarter finals this season, including against Price in Brighton in night five, whereas Price has been all or nothing. He has won two nights but in the other six evenings he has only won one match so it is difficult to predict what Price will show up here. The good thing for the Ice Man is that the crowds in Germany tend to be good sports so he is likely to get an even crack at this one. It was interesting that MVG skipped the Players Championship events earlier in the week whereas Price built up confidence by winning one but the Dutchman has won seven of the last nine meetings against Price. I think the bookmakers have this about right. Good luck if you want to pick a side and back it but I’m happy with the two earlier bets in the quarter finals.
Night 9 Betting
We have one of those nights on Thursday where Luke Littler and Luke Humphries are on opposite sides of the draw and the expectation will be that they face off in the final but a word of caution for that would be that if Gerwyn Price does come through the quarter final against Michael van Gerwen, he has a brilliant record against Luke Littler and could put a spanner well and truly in those works. As I hinted above though, Rob Cross might already have put paid to that final himself.
Cross has a solid record against Humphries and he’ll go into their encounter with no fear and the 14/1 on him to win the night could look huge by the time the final comes along, especially if Price has beaten Littler and it is a Cross vs Price final. Those two met in the quarter final last week and Cross won 6-2 and with maximum rest between the semi and the final a repeat wouldn’t be out of the question. Cross has actually beaten Price in the last two weeks and in the last three weeks only Littler has beaten Voltage. By the time those two meet here, should it happen, we would have the place money in the bank so I think a tickle on Cross at the prices feels the right way to go about betting on the evening.
Tips
Back S.Bunting to beat N.Aspinall for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with Coral
Back C.Dobey – Over 95.5 3 dart average vs L.Littler for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
Back R.Cross to win Night 9 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Unibet (1/3 1-2)
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