The PGA Tour crosses the American border this week for the RBC Canadian Open, one of the longest running and more historic tournaments on the circuit and one which fits in well with the run up to the US Open in two weeks.
Nick Taylor delighted the home crowds last year when he downed Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff and the Canuck is back to look to make a successful defence of his national title. A solid field will go up against him though.
Recent Winners
2023 – Nick Taylor
2022 – Rory McIlroy
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Jhonattan Vegas
2016 – Jhonattan Vegas
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Tim Clark
2013 – Brandt Snedeker
2012 – Scott Piercy
The Course
We have changed course again for the 2024 renewal and we head back to the track which last hosted the tournament in 2019 in the form of the Hamilton Golf and Country Club where Rory McIlroy came out on top. The course remains a par 70 but it now stretches to 7,084 yards after it has been lengthened by 117 yards in a completely renovation of the course. 16 bunkers have been removed and the greens are now Bentgrass and are larger than they were before.
Another of the changes to this course is run off areas have been created which will mean that players will need to use their imagination more should they miss the green. The rough is said to be up here so this is going to be a similar test to last week where length can be knocked off a little for the requirement of accuracy. You have to think that scoring will be lower than last week but it will be done from the fairways rather than the rough.
The Field
We don’t always see the best fields on the PGA Tour when the circuit leaves America but we have a solid enough one this week when you consider that we are two weeks away from the next major of the season. Rory McIlroy is effectively the defending champion here having been the last winner on this course but it is Nick Taylor who is officially the man who is looking to retain the title and both are in the field to give a bit of a bigger profile to it.
There is actually a strong European challenge this week with Tommy Fleetwood here looking to go one better than he did last year, Shane Lowry, Alex Noren and Aaron Rai are all in the field as well. Naturally there is a strong international challenge too with Corey Conners looking to win on home soil as is Mackenzie Hughes while Tom Kim, Adam Scott and Adam Hadwin all tee it up too. Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young and Sam Burns are among the leading American challengers.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the 4/1 favourite to win this tournament for a third time, a second time in succession on this course. This is the same place that he won in 2019 but the track seems to be completely different to then and it seems like accuracy is an even greater requirement this time around. That never plays into the hands of McIlroy who you just get the impression is a bit cheesed off with things at the minute after the role he has played on the tour combined with his personal issues. He’s too short for me regardless of having won here before.
Tommy Fleetwood entered this tournament last year not really going anywhere with his game and had it not been for a monster putt from Nick Taylor he might have walked off with the title. He’ll be looking to go one better on a different course here and he is 18/1 to do that. There is an easy argument to be made that this test suits him a lot more than the one he faced last year and after finished third at The Masters and T10 for the Genesis Invitational, it would be no surprise were he to win here.
Sahith Theegala comes next in the betting at 20/1. He ran well at the USPGA Championship a couple of weeks ago but faded fairly fast in the final round and that is a bit of a concern. More of a concern would be the requirement for accuracy this time around. He is so much better when he is allowed to let the driver run free and I don’t think that is going to be the case here. If he does drive it well he is a threat but there is enough of a concern over that for me to pass him by.
Shane Lowry and Corey Conners are the only other two players in the field who are shorter than 28/1. They are both 25/1. Lowry had that excellent round at Valhalla where he struck the ball beautifully and putted the lights out of it so he’ll be arriving with confidence. Conners isn’t having the best season he has had on the PGA Tour but a return home is sure to spark a fire within him and his ball striking could put him right in the mix very quickly.
Main Bets
Shane Lowry seems to have gone full circle with his game this season. His ball striking is up there with the best on the PGA Tour but a man who was once a really reliable putter has seemingly holed nothing for a while with the exception of that incredible third round at the USPGA Championship. I am hoping that round has given him the belief with the putter again because if it has then he has to be a leading contender here. There is a school of thought that with the greens being totally new here that a poor putter can go well which is a positive. The imagination that is needed here fits into the hands of Lowry who looks a great main bet.
The other main bet that I like the look of is the home player Corey Conners. This test should be right up his street because as ball striking goes he is right up there with anything on the tour. We all know that the thing that lets him down is the putter but although he hasn’t had a top 10 finish this season, his recent results have offered confidence that he is beginning to hit the ball well. He finished T13 at Wells Fargo and T26 at the PGA Championship where both tracks were a mile too long for him. He finished with successive 67s at Valhalla though so his form could be coming back. He’ll be determined to go well on home soil and he should be right in the mix here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of big priced outsiders this week because this is a tournament which throws up big priced contenders. Justin Lower sits fifth on the PGA Tour for proximity to the hole so he should in theory set up a lot of chances to score in this tournament because he isn’t going to have to pound the ball off the tee which should see his accuracy with the long clubs improve. If nobody has an advantage on the greens then Lower won’t be any worse off than the rest so the quality of his approach play is likely to give him better looks for birdie than others. At the prices I think it is worth paying to see how well he goes.
Troy Merritt isn’t having a brilliant season but he has won twice on the PGA Tour and there were signs at the Byron Nelson recently that he might be coming into a bit of form. He shot a second round 62 in that tournament and while that track isn’t exactly the hardest, 62s don’t grow on trees so he must have hit the ball really well there. He hasn’t been horrendous since then so if that scoring round in Texas can be replicated at some point here then there is no reason why he can’t fire his way into having a shot at the weekend. He is a streaky scorer so I’m hoping there is some juice left in this streak.
Tips
Back S.Lowry to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back C.Conners to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Lower to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Merritt to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
