The golfing world goes back to normal this week after the highs of the opening major of the year and on the PGA Tour the main event is the RBC Heritage, always a popular stop for many anyway but a tournament which has increased profile as a Signature Event now.
Matthew Fitzpatrick was the last winner of this tournament as just a regular PGA Tour event a year ago and he will be back to attempt to make a successful defence of the title. A much stronger field will oppose him though.
Recent Winners
2023 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2022 – Jordan Spieth
2021 – Stewart Cink
2020 – Webb Simpson
2019 – CT Pan
2018 – Satoshi Kodaira
2017 – Wesley Bryan
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Jim Furyk
2014 – Matt Kuchar
The Course
It is Harbour Town Golf Links which stages the tournament again this year. The course is a par 71 which only stretches 7,213 yards so it is certainly not a long track by modern standards. The tournament remains in its post-Masters home and will welcome some of the best players in the world to a course which can play very tough when the wind is up, which can be quite regular with this course not too far from the coast.
There is no secret that accuracy is the key here although not necessarily off the tee where the landing zones for those who don’t get greedy are wide and generous. It is into the small greens where the fun and games come along so pure ball strikers and excellent iron players should work their way to the top of the staking plan. We should also remember that this is quite an exposed layout so players who can handle a bit of wind should be kept to the forefront of our minds. Bombers aren’t necessarily needed here although there are one or two holes where length is no bad thing.
The Field
It can’t be said that the field of 69 teeing it up at Harbour Town is as strong as the one which played in The Masters last week given that LIV players were at Augusta but the one thing everyone who is in the start list will know is that they are guaranteed four days of action as there is no cut this week. The defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick headlines the field along with the recently crowned The Masters winner and world number one Scottie Scheffler.
Pretty much all of the leading lights on the PGA Tour are here this week including Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, the man who chased Scheffler home last week in Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele. Other notables teeing it up here are former winners Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson. Others who are likely to be popular over the course of the week are Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood and Max Homa.
Market Leaders
The world number one Scottie Scheffler is once again the market leader this week at 4/1. I certainly didn’t want to rule him out last week and while it is dangerous to do it this time around I do think there are mitigating factors which have to be put in place as to why he could be opposable. The first one is winning majors take a lot out of players and you could see that with the emotion Scheffler showed after winning The Masters. The second is he is days away from becoming a father for the first time so it would be understandable if his mind isn’t on the job here.
Xander Schauffele but up a decent tilt at Augusta but ultimately faded to finish 10 shots behind the eventual winner. He reopposes him here as the 12/1 second favourite. Schauffele has seven top 10 finishes on the season now so the chances are if you back him each way here you will get a payout on him, especially as his tee to green game is so good, as he used to his advantage when he finished in a tie for fourth here last year. If you’re backing him to win he might be a little short but he does look a certainty to deliver an each way payout.
Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg are next in the betting market at 14/1. Aberg comes here undoubtedly inspired after his major debut last week, one where he was the closest challenger to Scottie Scheffler but this is more of an accuracy test which might be an issue. It is that which puts me off McIlroy. He once again flattered to deceive at The Masters last week and I never really like him around courses where there is a premium on accuracy over length. I’ll pass these two over this week.
The only other player who is shorter than 20/1 in the betting this week is Patrick Cantlay. He put together a Masters campaign that was acceptable without being anything special to suggest that his form might be coming back because heading to Augusta he had one top 10 in the previous eight outings. That clearly suggests that his role within the PGA Tour player council is impacting his golf. Cantlay has a decent record around here but he is someone I’d need to see looking like his past self before I get involved.
Main Bets
This is the sort of tournament I would expect Cameron Young to win when he finally does get over the line for the first time and he feels a decent enough price for that to be this week. He comes in here in good form with a top 10 at The Masters which followed being the runner up at the Valspar. His tee to green game is renowned as being one of the better in the world. If he has a weakness it comes with the putter but the greens are so small here that you don’t need to be a great putter to win here. You do need to be accurate though and that is where Young comes to the fore. I think he’s a solid punt here.
I took Shane Lowry in The Masters last week and he never really delivered but the reason for that was because he holed absolutely nothing. To be fair, that kept with the numbers he has been posting with the short stick on the PGA Tour this season but I refuse to believe he won’t crack the putting code at some point because his touch on and around the greens has always been so good. Nobody know played all four rounds at Augusta last week gained more strokes on approach than Lowry and that also stands up to his season numbers where he sits third on the PGA Tour for that statistic this season. The fact that Lowry has three top 10s here since 2019 suggests to me that he putts these greens well and if he does then his long game is in the sort of shape for him to go very close here.
Outsiders
Emiliano Grillo had a bit of a week to forget at Augusta last week but he just caught the wrong end of the conditions so I’m not going to judge him on that. He has a couple of top 10 finishes on the season and in the last three years here he has gone T2-MC-T7 so there is something about Harbour Town that he enjoys. It isn’t hard to see what that is. Grillo is a player who has an excellent tee to green game and when the putter plays ball he is tough to get the better of. We are less than a year since his last success on the PGA Tour so that shows that even in a decent field he shouldn’t be ignored. I won’t ignore him. I’ll take him as an outside bet this week.
The other outsider bet that I like this week is Tom Hoge. Hoge sits second on the PGA Tour for strokes gained on approach and if that is the key statistic that it so often is around here then I think he has every chance of going well here. It might not be the worst thing in the world that he missed The Masters last week as it means he comes here very fresh which could be a real advantage. Hoge arrives here off the back of five top 20 finishes in his last seven starts and with his accuracy a huge weapon he should be involved in the deep end on Sunday.
Tips
Back C.Young to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Hoge to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Grillo to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back S.Lowry to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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