We have reached the penultimate day of the Royal Ascot meeting where another seven races will take place at the Berkshire track with the feature race on Friday being the Coronation Stakes, the Group 1 reserved for fillies only.
There are only seven runners in that race and there is a hotpot as favourite so rather than get involved in what could be a smash up job we are focusing our non-handicap bets on day four in the opening two races where we have a big priced selection in each.
2.30 Royal Ascot
Preview
The opener on Day 4 is the 6 furlong Albany Stakes for 2 year old fillies and, whilst there have been bigger fields this week (there’s just the 18 in this), it’s a puzzle in itself trying to figure out who’ll go off favourite. The 1-2 in a Naas Group 3 reoppose with the winner Porta Fortuna bidding to make it 3 from 3 whilst Navassa Island bids to turn the tables on her second career start. The Crisford’s Carlas Way has a hefty price tag & despite not looking totally straightforward, she quickened up well to win on debut with the runner up since bolting up by 11 lengths at Haydock, albeit in a weak race. Jabaara has solid claims after overcoming trouble to win a Newmarket maiden whilst both Soprano and Matrika could also be challenging for favouritism. However, I’d prefer to chance one at bigger odds.
Betting
Do It With Style – On paper, she’s the yard’s second string but I don’t think there’s much in it and comments from the trainer, Donnacha O’Brien suggest the same. She won her only start, a soft ground maiden at the Curragh, where she quickened up nicely despite being trapped out wide for much of the race. She’s been kept fresh for this but the immediate post-race reaction for the yard was that they think she’s very smart but probably wouldn’t be seen to best effect on the soft ground so the fact she won with a bit in hand is a huge positive. The ground today will be much quicker which, on breeding, will very much suit and I think she is massively overpriced at 25/1.
Tips
Back Do It With Style (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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3.05 Royal Ascot
Preview
The first Group 1 of the day, and the only real betting proposition from the 2 on the card, is the 6 furlong Commonwealth Cup for 3 year olds, where we have a warm favourite in the shape of Little Big Bear off the back of a comfortable success in the Sandy Lane Stakes. He won comfortably enough but it wasn’t that hot a race and it’s still not easy to forgive her 2000 Guineas run where she was last of 14. After a 2 year old campaign where he landed the Group 2 Mill Reef, Sakheer has a chance but I wasn’t overly impressed by his midfield finish in the Guineas too albeit he may not have liked the ground. Of the market leaders, I think Lezoo, the mount of Frankie Dettori, has an excellent chance but he’s another who ran no better than ok in the Guineas where he appeared a non-stayer. The fact all 3 had been targeted at a race over further but then stepped back in trip doesn’t fill me with the utmost confidence.
Betting
Mischief Magic – I cannot understand the price of William Buick’s mount and the price itself was enough to make him a bet. Last season, he won 4 of 6 starts including a Group 3 at Kempton before a career best victory in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. A win at the very highest level marks him down as a contender so the only reason for this ludicrous price is the fact he ran poorly on reappearance at this track. However, despite that being on good ground, connections were quick to come out and say the ground wasn’t quick enough. He definitely has the action of a top of the ground horse and the faster the better which is good given Ascot is riding good to firm and is only getting quicker despite their plan to water. His record with firm in the description is 1-1 whilst he won his only start on the Polytrack which is akin to quick turf. In fact, the win over in America was on actual firm ground (no good to firm in the description) and the way he quickened was impressive. A fast pace on fast going is his ideal conditions and that’s exactly what he’ll get here so he looks a cracking each way bet to get his 3 year old campaign back on track.
Tips
Back Mischief Magic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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