The 50 over final has always been one of the showpiece occasions in the county season and this year’s one takes place on Saturday at Lord’s as Surrey and Gloucestershire do battle for the Royal London One Day Cup trophy.
As a county who have a Test match ground and a star studded squad Surrey go into this final as warm favourites but that is a position Gloucestershire will relish as they have made a history of knocking off bigger sides particularly in one day cricket.
Surrey saw off a gutsy Nottinghamshire in a high quality semi-final to book their spot at Lord’s. They have been dominant in a number of their matches this season and just need to be one more time.
Gloucestershire saw off Hampshire in the quarter final and went to Yorkshire and won a semi-final when nobody gave them much chance publicly. They didn’t just win that semi they were always in control of it and that’s a positive.
Surrey go across the river with Jason Roy back in their ranks from the side which won the semi-final. Since then Zafar Ansari has been called up for the England Test squad and then dislocated this thumb and he misses out. Azhar Mahmood is in the squad for the first time in this competition.
Gloucestershire have Michael Klinger in their squad which is important. He flew back from Australia for the semi-final and produced a high quality century to get his side over the line and his young side will look to him to lead by example again in this final.
Surrey are warm favourites for this match but one thing I find interesting in the eight completed matches Surrey have played is that they have batted first in every one of them. They’ve only lost one of those matches so batting first and getting a score on the board clearly benefits them but I do wonder how they will play if they bat second and have to chase a daunting total.
These two sides met in the group stage at Bristol and Surrey won that match by 12 runs. Gloucestershire were without Michael Klinger on that day and Surrey without Kumar Sangakkara so it is good that the two sides have their key men back for this final.
Surrey’s lack of chasing is concerning me because in an ideal world you wouldn’t want to be batting first on a 10.30am start after a few days of indifferent weather leading up to the match so I’m going to side with Gloucestershire. I don’t see how the wicket can have much pace in it and that suits Gloucestershire fine and at 6/4 I see them as the value here.
With a tacky wicket, potentially heavy conditions, two decent bowling attacks and pretty big boundaries I’m surprised the highest sixes line is 8.5. I don’t think we’ll get anywhere near that. Klinger and Sangakkara are likely to be the mainstays of the batting for both sides and neither are natural big hitters.
Neither has a Gayle or a Faulkner or a Pollard who naturally hit big so I’m happy to go under 8.5 in a final I fancy to be lower scoring than perhaps would be the ideal for a neutral.
I’m going to take a couple of player markets for the big game too. The first is for Sam Curran to be the top Surrey bowler. 17-year-old Curran is getting a lot of people talking with the quality he has at his disposal and having seen him a few times that doesn’t surprise me.
As a left-armer he will be able to use the slope to his advantage but he may not need it because he can swing the ball both ways. Curran bowls at the beginning of the innings and he’ll come back at the end so he bowls at the right times to take wickets so I like him to lead Surrey’s bowling at 10/3.
If Gloucestershire are to win the match as I think they will then their captain Michael Klinger is likely to have played a significant role. He is 10/1 to be the man of the match and given his record of having passed 50 in five of his seven innings in this competition including three centuries which currently sees him averaging 132.75 in the RLODC you would have to say that looks good value.
Back Gloucestershire to beat Surrey for a 4/10 stake at 2.50 with Boylesports
Back Under 8.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfred
Back S.Curran Top Surrey Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 4.33 with Betfair Sportsbook
Back M.Klinger Man of the Match for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Betway
Blog cricket +6.33pts
