New Zealand won a nervy and tense second Test at the Olympic Stadium last week to set up a fascinating and eagerly anticipated deciding match against England which takes place in true rugby league heartland in Wigan on Saturday afternoon.
England went to London with the chance to secure the series last week. Whether they got stagefright or it was just a poor day at the office only they will know but they never performed at all and were beaten more comfortably than the 9-2 scoreline suggested.
New Zealand might feel that they could have won the series by now having been mugged off with a perfectly legitimate try being disallowed when they were in complete control of the opening match of the series so they may have a point to prove.
Such was the disappointment of England’s performance levels in the second game their coach Steve McNamara has made two changes to his squad. Jermaine McGillvary and Matty Smith have come into it and the talk is that both have every chance of featuring from the start.
New Zealand have predictably kept with the same squad which levelled the series last weekend. Their coach Stephen Kearney has claimed he believes his side still have plenty more improvement in them and I would agree particularly when you think Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is yet to have a real meaningful impact on this series in an attacking way so far.
England are under massive pressure to get their win here. Their coach is under even more pressure to win. He probably won’t want to face the consequences of defeat but he’ll need to find a way to take some of the pressure off his side so that they can be brave enough to attack this Kiwi side.
New Zealand are in a perfect place here. They can play with an air of freedom in that nobody expected them to win the series when they arrived on these shores and yet to a large extent they have dominated it without ever playing their best rugby.
I claimed last week that there isn’t a lot between these two sides. I think we saw that last week but we also saw that if one side have an edge it is New Zealand.
To a large extent that edge is slighter here as this match is going to be played at a sold out DW Stadium in front of a passionate English crowd and New Zealand will have to deal with that and the forecast wet and windy conditions but if they do deal with that then they are far too big at 13/10 based on what we’ve seen in this series so far.
I’m expecting a real physical battle in this match and New Zealand will love that. At the prices I think the Kiwis have to be the bet in this match.
Those looking for an alternative bet could do worse than back Brett Ferres to score a try at anytime. He went over twice in the first game in Hull and has very close ties with his coach Steve McNamara so he’ll be even more up for this than others might be.
Ferres is an elusive carrier of the ball who often runs angles which aren’t easy to defend and at 4/1 he looks a decent price to plough over the line at some point.
Back New Zealand to win 3rd Test for a 4/10 stake at 2.30 with Bet365
Back B.Ferres anytime try scorer for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power
Blog RL YTD: +2.93pts
