The pick of the opening round of matches in the Four Nations tournament takes place at Huddersfield’s John Smith’s Stadium when tournament hosts England take on the defending champions New Zealand.
Australia set their stall out for the competition on Friday night with an emphatic win and the baton has been passed to both of these to lay down markers of their own. Common logic would suggest both will beat Scotland and lose to Australia so this match is effectively a semi-final.
England
Wayne Bennett’s men warmed up for this tournament with a comfortable, if a little low key, win over France last weekend and while that will have got them back on the park and helping with cohesion it goes without saying they will need a dramatic improvement on that if they are going to win this match.
England head into this match knowing they saw off the Kiwis in a best of three Test series on these shores last year but that was very much an injury ravaged New Zealand side so while they can take confidence from that once again they will know an improvement is needed in this match.
New Zealand
Unlike England, New Zealand warmed up for this tournament with a defeat albeit theirs was to Australia in what was David Kidwell’s first game in charge. It would make total sense for the Kiwis to come on for the run to use racing parlance but at the same time they know they are going to have to do that.
I wouldn’t think last year’s series will mean too much to New Zealand. They didn’t have their gun half back Shaun Johnson with them last year. Instead they might well rekindle memories of the epic World Cup semi-final which they won with a last gasp try to break England’s hearts. Whatever memories New Zealand draw on they need to play as tough as ever here.
Team News
England will welcome their captain Sam Burgess back into their side for this match after he was banned for the match with France. England coach Wayne Bennett has confirmed that George Williams and Liam Farrell miss out which means that Luke Gale will start.
New Zealand are expected to name the same side which went down to Australia a couple of weeks back. The likes of Shaun Johnson and Thomas Leuluai will be crucial in the halves while players like Jason Taumalolo and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves will add plenty of muscle.
Betting
I’m expecting a real Test match style intensity to this match. As I eluded to above the losers of this one will have their work cut out to make the final so even this early in the tournament everything is on the line and I’m anticipating that will be reflected in the way the game is played out too.
I think we will get a real physical battle – with the size of the two packs involved we’re almost guaranteed that – and it will turn into a real arm wrestle. For all of England’s mite there is a distinct lack of creativity in their side but their defence looks solid. New Zealand can be exposed but I’m not convinced England are the team to do it regularly so I’m expecting a tight, low scoring match here.
Three of the last four matches between these two have had 34pts or less in them including the last two in that series 12 months ago. I’m expecting fewer than 36.5pts in this one.
Tips
WON – Back Under 36.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
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