A week of Championship action every night begins with a huge clash on Monday evening when the two sides who can deny Sheffield United automatic promotion meet when Luton Town host Middlesbrough at Kenilworth Road.
Only a win for either will keep their automatic promotion hopes alive but with both looking likely to have to go through the play-offs to achieve their aim, this could be a dress rehearsal for the final next month which adds to the significance of this one.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football channels with the build-up in Bedfordshire beginning at 7.30pm and kick off coming at 8pm.
Luton Town
What a season this has been for Luton Town and 35 years to the day of their greatest triumph, the Hatters will be looking to edge closer to a Premier League debut. A win here will keep their feint automatic promotion hopes alive but would go a long way to securing third spot and the supposedly easier route through the play-offs. Luton go into this encounter off the back of an 11-match unbeaten run in the league and have hit form at the right time.
The biggest compliment you can pay Luton is that despite all the fiscal challenges they face in this division, their league position is no fluke and having missed out in the play-off semi-final last season there will be a real determination to go all the way this time around. Luton don’t concede many chances let alone goals. Only the top two have conceded more goals than them this term and while they are not the most potent in front of goal, they have no problem creating chances.
Middlesbrough
At the end of the first quarter of the season if you had said to a Middlesbrough fan that three games from home they would still have a chance of promotion this term I would imagine they would have snapped your hand off. They were going absolutely nowhere under Chris Wilder but the resurgence they have shown since Michael Carrick has arrived has been remarkable. They had a bit of a wobble after the last international break but look back on it now.
This Middlesbrough team under Carrick score for fun. Not even the runaway leaders Burnley have scored more than them and while that comes at a bit of a risk defensively, there is no arguing with the results. Boro have the newly crowned Chuba Akpom in their ranks and he is a mile clear in the goal charts so the Teesiders will hope he has more goals in him here. Middlesbrough have only won one of their last four away from home which might be an issue.
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Team News
Luton will be without defenders Gabe Osho and Reece Burke but Elijah Adebayo and Jordan Clark came off the bench after injuries against Reading last week and could return to the starting XI with Cauley Woodrow one to miss out.
Middlesbrough have a number of injury issues with Dael Fry and Aaron Ramsey definitely out and it looking likely that Marcus Forss and Tommy Smith will also miss out. That might open the door for Isaiah Jones to return to the starting XI.
Betting
I like two bets in this match. The first one is over 2.5 goals. Middlesbrough games are very high scoring at the minute with them struggling for defensive personnel which means they are playing more attack minded players in the full-back and midfield positions. Just one of their last 14 have gone under 2.5 goals and that was a 1-1 draw in which Stoke did everything but score a second goal in. Luton aren’t quite as regular when it comes to over 2.5 goals but they have scored two or more in three of their last five and should have added to that tally at Reading last week when they ran up an xG of 2.08, a fourth time in five matches that their total for xG has been 1.85 or higher. I suspect both will want to put a bit of a marker down but with both having secured a play-off spot they can play with a bit of freedom in front of the cameras and I expect over 2.5 goals to land here.
The other bet I like in this match is for Marvelous Nakamba to make more than four tackles in the match. His tackle count against teams who enjoy lots of possession against Luton is pretty incredible. On his full Luton debut he made four at Coventry, five at home to Burnley, six at home to Swansea, nine at Sunderland, 10 at home to Watford which is a Championship best this season, and he registered five in both of the away matches to Rotherham and Reading last week so even against more direct sides he makes a lot of tackles. He is the shield of this defence but his athleticism allows him to cover a vast amount of the pitch which in turn means that Luton can release their wing-backs or wider centre-backs to go forward knowing the on loan Aston Villa man can cover. Middlesbrough play through the middle of the park around Akpom a lot so Nakamba is going to be a busy man. Odds against that he registers five or more tackles is too big.
Tips
Back Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor
Back it here:
Back M.Nakamba – Over 4 tackles for a 3/10 stake at 2.15 with William Hill
Back him here:
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