Top goalscorer markets are always of interest in the run up to any season or tournament beginning and as one has been priced up for the Skybet League Two season it is only right that we have a good look at it ahead of the season beginning on Saturday.
2015/16 Top Scorers
These were the men who delivered the most goals last season:
27 – Matty Taylor (Bristol Rovers)
25 – Jay Simpson (Leyton Orient)
23 – John Akinde (Barnet)
22 – Lyle Taylor (AFC Wimbledon)
18 – Kemar Roofe (Oxford)
17 – Billy Kee (Accrington)
16 – Matt Green (Mansfield)
16 – Josh Windass (Accrington)
15 – Jabo Ibehre (Carlisle)
15 – Shaun Miller (Morecambe)
15 – Marc Richards (Northampton)
There are a few things we can deduce from that. Firstly five of the 11 men named (Both Taylors, Roofe, Windass and Richards) are no longer in the division having either been promoted or transferred while we are not necessarily looking for someone from the champions as the top scorer. Eight men scored more than Northampton’s leading scorer last season and Burton didn’t have anyone in the top 10 when they won it the year before.
The Favourites
Jay Simpson is one who remains in the division and he is the 10/1 favourite to top score this season. His goals seemed to quiet down in the second half of last year and that would be a worry as would his supply line with Jobi McAnuff and Kevin Nolan among those who moved on.
Andy Williams has come down from the division above with Doncaster. Two years ago when at Swindon in League One he bagged 21 league goals and if he has that form with him in this campaign his 11/1 quotes will look pretty big quite quickly. He only managed 12 league goals last season albeit in a season of struggle.
John Akinde went well last season at Barnet’s first season back at this level and you would think in theory they will improve just by knowing the league but there has been a big turnover of player at The Hive and that is never ideal. Akinde does take penalties though which could be significant.
Jack Marriott of Luton is next in the betting at 16/1. He has fired in five goals in pre-season so he will kick off the campaign in good form and is set to lead the line at Kenilworth Road. He has shortened a touch since the market first came out so he’ll be popular.
Billy Kee remains with Accrington and he’ll be a big player for them this season too with Josh Windass having moved up to Scotland. Whether he’ll get the supply line and the freedom he enjoyed last season remains to be seen and I’d be reluctant to get involved there.
Danny Hylton is 22/1 on the best prices and having bagged double figures in the last two years with Oxford he can’t be ruled out either. He looks like being Luton’s penalty taker this season despite his poor record from the spot for Oxford so he could bag some cheap goals.
Betting
Whenever you bet on markets like this it is important to take what you perceive as value. Injuries are the big killer in these markets and anyone can get injured at any given time. Although we can never predict the future steering clear of those who could be sold before the end of the season is another advisable thing as the last thing we want is to back someone, he starts well and then ends up in another division and we’ve done our dough.
I’ve had a good look at this market and there are two men I’m happy to back although the fact it is 10/1 the field does highlight just how open the market is this season. Thankfully bookmakers who offer each way terms pay four places which gives us a bit of margin to play with.
My first pick is Jack Marriott. Before I’m accused of bias I need to point out that of all those players in the top 25 goalscorers in this division last season only Matty Taylor of Bristol Rovers had a better goals to minutes ratio than Marriott. Taylor obviously isn’t in the league anymore so that is encouraging.
A lot of Marriott’s goals came from the bench last season. John Still saw the forward as one for the future but he was a regular when fit for all of Nathan Jones’ games and he is expected to start the season up front alongside Danny Hylton. With five goals in pre-season he has hit the ground running and this young forward, who is improving all the time, is more than capable of bagging 20+ goals which gets you right in the mix in this sort of market.
The second pick I’m going with is Izale McLeod of Notts County. McLeod can be hard to handle but his manager John Sheridan knows how to get the best out of players and at his best McLeod is a man who has bagged 20 goals in this league and who nailed 19 in a poor Crawley side in League One two years ago.
McLeod is a decent enough penalty taker so he could get a few goals via that method but Notts County look a more English side this season which I think will help McLeod’s style. If he stays fit and hits the ground running we should see him pushing the 20 goal mark again.
Tips
Back J.Marriott Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back I.McLeod Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
