There are four matches in Skybet League 2 on Tuesday night as sides look to catch up with their games in hand after a messy period of weather and a few cup runs and in the short fixture list there is focus at the top, the playoffs and the bottom on a big night in the division.
The fixtures for Tuesday night are as follows: (All 19:45 kick offs)
Accrington v Carlisle
Hartlepool v Notts County
Oxford Utd v Northampton
York v Exeter
Accrington and Carlisle are playing just their 28th matches of the season which when you think Mansfield and Stevenage have already played 32 you can see how far behind in their campaigns both are.
However that means both have a chance of doing something this season. Carlisle have five games in hand of Mansfield who are in the final playoff place but they are only six points behind them so a win here gives their promotion chances a huge boost.
Accrington sit seven points off automatic promotion but they have a couple of games in hand and while this isn’t one of them with Oxford also playing it is a game in hand of those immediately around them so they can put a bit of breathing space between them and the chasing pack.
Initially I was looking at goals in this game but Accrington had a man sent off on Saturday and don’t have the biggest squad so that could be an issue. Carlisle played on that bog of a pitch in Newport at the weekend so they might not be 100% either so I’ve decided to leave the match alone.
York and Hartlepool are just starting to show shoots of a revival which is putting me off opposing them but I can’t say I’m in a rush to back either of them especially having been burnt on Exeter at the weekend.
That leaves us with the pick of the matches where Oxford host Northampton in a top of the table clash. I guess the question on most League 2 followers’ lips is can anyone stop Northampton? Well we’re about to find out because if Oxford can’t I don’t think anyone can.
Oxford are a decent side in this division who should probably be dominating it more than they are but let’s make no mistake Northampton are the best side in the league and away from home they are particularly impressive.
Oxford would be doing much better if their home form was better. You can easily argue that two defeats in 14 games is a fine record but they’ve only won six times and that isn’t helpful. Being hard to beat is one thing but you need to win home games if you want to challenge sides like Northampton. Oxford have only scored 20 goals at home too so you can see they’re not free flowing at the Kassam.
Contrast that to Northampton who have won nine of their 14 matches away from Sixfields and who average more than two goals a game on the road. In all Northampton have won 12 of their last 13 league games and have one defeat in their last 16. They really are steamrolling the division right now and having strengthened again in January they’re not going to slow down alarmingly from here.
The fact backing an away side on the +0.5 Asian cap would have paid out on eight of the 14 occasions Oxford have played at home this season means I can’t ignore the 1.83 on that line here. This isn’t any away side, this is statistically the second best side in the league on the road. The price for this line is just too big.
You would think if Oxford are going to beat Northampton they would have to be at full strength so it is far from ideal that comfortably their best player, and one of, if not the best in the entire league is a doubt in Kemar Roofe. Of course that could be mind games but even so it isn’t great.
Oxford have only won one of their last five matches at home this season and at the very least I think Northampton can take a point away with them but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they leave with all three.
WON – Back Northampton (+0.5AH) to beat Oxford for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with BetVictor
