The next few months are big for both South Africa and England as the World T20 fast approaches and after a month of excellent Test cricket the two sides now get down to limited overs business starting with the first ODI of five in Bloemfontein on Wednesday.
South Africa struggled badly in the Test matches but there are signs they are going to do that for a little while to come while they are in transition but in the ODIs they tend to be a more formidable outfit.
They made the semi-final of the last World Cup and even won an ODI series on a tour of India where they were blown out of the water in the Test matches so just how much we should base our opinion of South Africa on what we’ve seen in the last month I’m not so sure.
When basing opinions on these two sides we have to recognise the change that England have undergone in this format of the game since the lowest low they could have possibly reached which was their disastrous exit in the World Cup pool stage.
Since then there has been more of a focus on one day cricket, something that has been lacking for pushing 25 years, and there is a clear emphasis on an exciting brand of cricket. It doesn’t always equate to wins but it does at least mean England are playing the same game as everyone else.
South Africa remain without their first choice new ball pairing of Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander which might dent their chances here. Back up Kyle Abbott is out too so Marchant de Lange might get a game. Imran Tahir and Rilee Rossouw could come into the side having sat out the Tests.
England will give a fitness test to Jason Roy ahead of this game. He suffered a back spasm earlier in the week and is a major doubt. Moeen Ali is likely to open in Roy’s absence. In terms of getting Ali and Adil Rashid into the side it might help England were Roy to be ruled out as they have a luxury of options. David Willey and Reece Topley look set to take the new ball.
Manguang Oval in Bloemfontein is the venue for this opening match of the series. There have been 27 previous ODIs on this ground including some in the 2003 World Cup. South Africa are strong here. They have a 14-6 record with a tie. England are undefeated here with two wins and a tie from the three matches they have played.
Although you get some high scores on this ground it is rare that we see an avalanche of boundaries on this huge outfield. I would expect a flat wicket here on what is a big occasion for the venue. They don’t host many ODIs so to produce an iffy wicket would be counterproductive.
I’m tempted to back England here with the momentum they carry into the series but it is a totally different format and different personnel are involved and such things so I’ll give the match betting a miss and wait until later in the series before getting involved.
One bet I am going to take is under 9.5 sixes. In many ways it is a strange bet to take because I actually think this will be a high scoring series where the bat dominates the ball but sometimes you have to play the statistics and this is one of those occasions.
In the 27 past matches on this ground only once has there been more than 9.5 sixes and that was a game involving the Netherlands and Namibia back in the World Cup where there was a clear gulf in class. In the other 26 games here there hasn’t been 10 sixes so odds against on the under line looks worth a go.
In the recent Ram Slam matches on this ground the only times matches were littered with sixes were when Andre Russell turned up and went mental. He’s a bit of an extreme when it comes to hitting sixes though.
Of course with England’s new approach there is an element of risk attached to this bet but the boundaries are huge on this ground hence why the sixes count is generally low and so in playing the historical statistics I’m taking under 9.5 here and taking the chance I’ve not picked a day where England go bonkers.
Back Under 9.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 2.15 with Betway
