Another destructive Stuart Broad spell in Johannesburg catapulted England to a series win over South Africa with a Test match to spare and the two sides do battle for the final time in Centurion on Friday with the hosts looking to salvage some pride.
At times in this series South Africa have looked like a side in the headlights scared to perform and they desperately need to find a confidence boosting win to arrest the catastrophic slide they are on. Not only are they on a slide but panic is beginning to set in and that is never a good combination.
For the second match in a row South Africa look unsure about their best balance. Dane Vilas has been axed along with Hardus Viljoen and Stephen Cook comes in for his debut in place of Stiaan van Zyl. Dane Piedt is also expected to be recalled. South Africa remain without Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander.
England look a confident side and their star players have really come alive at the right times. Joe Root made a century in Johannesburg that gave England a narrow lead and Broad did the rest. In a perfect world in this match Alex Hales will show why he’s at the top of the order but there isn’t much wrong with England’s game right now.
The tourists will be forced into one change as Steven Finn is sidelined with an injury. Chris Woakes would be the logical replacement as he played the first game of the series but this might just be the ideal time to give a Test debut to Mark Footitt. Chris Jordan is another option but seems least likely of the three to play.
SuperSport Park in Centurion is the venue for this final match of the series. This will be the 21st time a Test has been held on this ground. South Africa have an incredibly good record here. They have won 15 matches and lost just twice and their last four wins here have all been by an innings. England are unbeaten in four here but have won just once.
No Test match is a dead rubber but this might be as close to one as we’re going to get given what is to come in the next couple of months. If there is any sort of competitive edge to the game then I would be backing England but if we remember when England sewed the Ashes up early last year they were well off the pace when it didn’t matter.
South Africa have a strong record on this ground and I’m almost tempted to back them but with no Steyn and no Philander there is just enough to put me off but I’m certainly wary about backing England that’s for sure.
It has been a good series for me this and if Stokes can convert his lead into the series top bat then it will get even better for me so I’m not going to push the boat out in this match but there are a couple which have got me dragged in.
I took Kagiso Rabada’s performance in the last match where his line was 80.5 and he scored 140pts so I’m a little surprised his line has only been increased to 92.5. I believe Rabada is the real deal and on a pitch which is already said to be cracked and only likely to get harder to bat on he should enjoy the conditions enough to bag five wickets or four and a combination of 13pts in catches and runs.
I’ve a feeling one of the first innings in this match could be quite low scoring so a down the order top batsman might prove lucrative. I think England have the better batting line up so I’ll go with the South African market.
Obviously Amla and de Villiers are the standouts but apart from in the first innings of the opening game nobody else has really scored runs aside from Bavuma in Cape Town so there is plenty of potential in this line up.
Dean Elgar top scored with 46 first time around in Johannesburg while Rabada top scored with just 16 in the second dig which further highlights the potential down the order here.
Chris Morris showed in Cape Town that he is a handy batsman even at this level. He hit 69 on that occasion and anything like a repeat here could be enough to steal the thunder. At 33/1 he’s worth a dabble.
Back K.Rabada’s Performance – Over 92.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back C.Morris Top South Africa 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Bet365
