England’s main course of the winter begins this week when they embark on a four match Test series against South Africa which is just the type of series to capture the imagination over the festive period into the New Year.
Both sides go into the series off the back of disappointing starts to the winter. South Africa were torn a new backside in India while England were soundly beaten by Pakistan. Neither will have enjoyed conditions in those series and both will enjoy conditions here much more so on the face of it this should be a really competitive series.
Often in Test cricket around the world these days how competitive a series will be can be dictated by how well the away side play but here I fancy the roles could be reversed a little bit.
I say that because South Africa look like a side in transition to me and dare I say it a side without a firm direction. AB de Villiers ditched the gloves for the India series but so woeful were South Africa with the bat that he’s had to take them back again for this series to balance the side out.
South Africa have their main four batsmen of Amla, de Villiers, Duminy and du Plessis but they look very young and exposed around them and even someone like du Plessis isn’t a permanent standout fixture in this side. Gone are the days where Smith, Kallis and Prince were taking England apart.
In contrast although England have one or two new players in their side they have a spine of the team that is very strong in Cook, Root, Stokes, Anderson and Broad and decent options around them. Importantly England finished their tour of Pakistan positively in the limited overs matches and have dominated their warm up matches since arriving in South Africa.
This series begins in Durban and takes in Cape Town and Johannesburg before it concludes in Centurion and as the matches come and go I’ve a feeling that results will be harder to find.
I expect a result in Durban and Cape Town usually delivers a result but on good batting decks in Johannesburg and particularly Centurion draws could well come along there so it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that this series will be settled in the first two matches. That’s how I’m playing the series anyway.
Given that England go into the series as the more settled side I think they are a big price to win the series. Were they to go 1-0 up in Durban and start strongly in Cape Town they might be away and gone before South Africa get the chance to respond. England have drifted to 11/4 to win the series now and that is just a little too big to ignore.
I’m going to leave the South Africa player markets alone. With the bat you would think the result is between Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers but the former is the captain and the latter is keeping wicket, neither are ideal situations. There’s a case for JP Duminy being value at 12/1 but I’m not convinced.
With the ball Dale Steyn’s fitness concerns are an issue but it is hard to take anyone else because at some point in the series Vernon Philander will return and scupper the chances of someone like Kagiso Rabada or Kyle Abbott. Morne Morkel could be an option but he’s getting more injury prone now too.
I will hit the England player markets though and there’s a couple of value shouts I like. The first comes in the Top England Series Batsman market where naturally Alastair Cook and Joe Root are favoured.
I wouldn’t necessarily go against that but it is a lot of pressure on them to deliver in four matches against an attack with the quality this one potentially has so I’ll take a chance on Ben Stokes down the order.
Stokes has scores of 158 and 66 in the warm up matches on this tour so he’s in excellent nick and while I’m a fan of Alex Hales and I rate Nick Compton highly it would only be natural for them to have some nerves early on in the series and a couple of failures would amp the pressure up on them.
Stokes is a free spirit who plays with confidence and he’ll go after this attack which might just be the way to go especially in the opening couple of matches so at 14/1 I’ll chance him going so well he nicks the top score.
With the ball you would expect the seamers to prosper but I’m not so sure that is the case with England here. Jimmy Anderson has been ruled out of the opening match of the series so we can ignore his chances straight away.
On the face of it that might make the Top England Series Bowler between Stuart Broad and Steven Finn and I wouldn’t put anyone off those but instead I’m going to chance Moeen Ali at a double figure price.
Spinners actually have a good record in Durban which plays into Moeen’s hands but we only have to look at how South Africa went in India recently to know they are abject against spin. A couple of early wickets in the series for Moeen would not only get his confidence up but South African fragilities would be reopened.
The longer the series goes on the harder I expect it to get for the seamers to take wickets so at 12/1 there’s plenty there to suggest Moeen can steal the thunder of the quicks here.
Back England to win Test Series for a 2/10 stake at 3.75 with Stan James
Back B.Stokes Top England Series Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfred
Back M.Ali Top England Series Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Betfred
