New Zealand saved their ODI series against South Africa with a solid win in Potchefstroom on Sunday and that has set up a thrilling end to their tour as the two sides will meet in a decider in Durban on Wednesday.
South Africa seemed to take their foot off the gas in the second match on Sunday but you do sense they are determined to win this series and go a little way to making up for their World Cup disappointment while New Zealand aren’t expecting to win and are clearly enjoying their underdog status as ever.
South Africa decided to play Aaron Phangiso in the previous match but he didn’t really have the desired effect so Kagiso Rabada is likely to return here with the seamers generally favoured more at Kingsmead.
Martin Guptill was available for the previous match for New Zealand despite his injury concern and not only did he play but he scored an unbeaten match-winning century so it is hard to see the tourists making too many changes ahead of this finale.
Kingsmead in Durban was the place New Zealand began their tour of South Africa so it is probably fitting that it ends here too. South Africa won the T20 here a couple of weeks ago and will be aiming to follow that up in this ODI.
This will be the 41st time an ODI has been held at what is a pretty famous venue. South Africa have played in 32 matches and have won 17 and lost 10. Like the other two grounds used in this series New Zealand arrive here without a win on the ground. They’ve played three previous matches at this complex.
I still think South Africa will win the series but I’m not convinced I want to back them given the ease New Zealand won the previous match with. I don’t see this match being won by the batsmen which has to give South Africa some sort of advantage.
Instead I’m going to take a punt on the sixes line which I think is a bit high at 7.5. Although most matches are played in South Africa in the English winter I wouldn’t say either of the wickets have been terrible but they’ve not been the quick, bouncy wickets we’re used to in that area of the world and the batsmen have found timing difficult as a result.
The thing I like about this line though is only one of the last eight ODIs here have had more than 7.5 sixes and even that only had eight and that was when the West Indies were involved and they hit more sixes than most anyway. I know the game has changed a little bit now and batsmen are more aggressive but that stat goes back to 2007.
South Africa don’t hit millions of sixes and unlike Centurion there is no altitude helping the ball fly here. Even New Zealand are without their two biggest hitters so there is plenty of evidence to suggest we won’t see enough maximums to cover that line.
Back Under 7.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Coral
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