The relatively new DP World Tour season continues this week when half of the tour head to South Africa for the South African Open Championship, the middle event of the three co-sanctioned tournaments with the Sunshine Tour prior to Christmas.
This tournament was staged last year but wasn’t a DP World Tour event so Daniel van Tonder missed out on all the riches when he won it. He’ll attempt to get those when he makes the defence of his title, albeit on a different course.
Recent Winners
2021 – Daniel van Tonder
2020 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2020 – Branden Grace
2019 – Louis Oosthuizen
2018 – Chris Paisley
2017 – Graeme Storm
2016 – Brandon Stone
The Course
We are at the Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate in Johannesburg this week. This is the first time the course has been used on the DP World Tour and it has to be said it is a bit of a monster. It has been used on the Sunshine Tour once before but most of the players in the field will be teeing it up here for the first time this week. The course is a par 72 but it is the third longest in the world at some 8,161 yards. It should be said we are at altitude though so it doesn’t play to quite that yardage but it is still long.
The course looks fairly flat and wide open so those who like to ride the driver should be able to do that but players who rely on accuracy will be pleased to know that there are 11 water features on the course and they are all in play so they are going to need to navigated successfully. As ever in this part of the world the overriding factor is distance control but these greens are pretty big and so a hot putter is welcomed as well.
The Field
It is hard to suggest that this is the strongest field in the world but it was never likely to be because this is traditionally the time of the year that the star names and standout players head off on their holidays. As a result of that, there are just three players in the top 100 in the world rankings who are teeing it up this week. They are the home pair of Dean Burmester and Thriston Lawrence, who will both be looking for a home title, and Adrian Otaegui.
Four men who opened up their season well last week are also in the field this week. Sami Valimaki went very well and he is looking to go one better while the defending champion Daniel van Tonder, Louis de Jager and Dale Whitnell begin the week inside the top 10 of the early Race to Dubai rankings and will be looking for the sort of performance which could keep them there. Other notables in the field include Charl Schwartzel, Erik van Rooyen and Branden Grace.
Market Leaders
Dean Burmester is a pretty well supported 12/1 favourite to land the crown this week. He has been plying his trade on the PGA Tour in recent times, without too much success, but this is clearly a drop down in level from the tournaments he has been operating in. He has a very good record on home soil though. His last eight events in South Africa have yielded results of 4-2-1-43-4-2-18-2 which is an insane stretch of form which lasts more than two years so he clearly loves home comforts.
Branden Grace is bigger than Burmester at one book. He can be backed at 14/1 and he is another who tends to come to the party on home soil. He was in the top 10 at the Nedbank a few weeks ago which would have been much better had he not fluffed his lines in the final round. His last three tournaments in South Africa have yielded 3-1-9 finishes and he has won a LIV event this year too. For all the controversy and doubts over a competitive edge of those tournaments, the players he beat to win that are well ahead of what he faces here. He merits respect.
Charl Schwartzel is another LIV golfer who is teeing it up on home soil this week. It might be a sign of the times that he is going off as a 20/1 shot to win here when usually when he tees it up on Sunshine Tour events he would be a single figure price. Schwartzel won the first LIV tournament but he only has two top 10s on that tour since then. While he is massive down in grade here, you do wonder if the riches he scooped in London in June has watered down his hunger and competitive edge.
Thriston Lawrence is a winner in South Africa in the past and will tee off as the only player who is shorter than 25/1 this week at 22/1. Lawrence is one of the few in the competition who has played on this course before. He finished sixth here last year when he came home with a wet sail with a final round of 64. He was down the field at the Joburg Open last week and this is now his fourth tournament in as many weeks and you wonder if that will catch up with him.
Main Bets
I expect the winner this week to have a bit of class about them but I also expect them to have some length to their game as well so the first player I want to be on is Dylan Frittelli. He comes in here in indifferent form but this course might well suit him with the wide open spaces off the tee and length clearly being an issue. He can use that length and the fact he’ll be taking shorter irons into the greens to his advantage and if he can get to grips with these greens quickly then he could go very well here. There are five par 5s on this course for his length to be an advantage on so at 28/1 I like Frittelli.
Erik van Rooyen might not be quite as long as one or two but he can still get it out there when he needs to. He hasn’t been in great form in recent times but it should be said he’s been competing in better events than this one so a return home to a lower grade could be what is necessary to bring about a rise in form. This course should suit van Rooyen as there is nothing too penal off the tee so he can just go aggressively into the greens and if he can find some form on them early in the week there is nothing to suggest he isn’t overpriced at 33/1.
Outsiders
Brandon Stone isn’t my favourite golfer after he messed up the Portugal Masters for me at a big price a few years ago but he does play well in South Africa as you would expect and his length is sufficient enough for him to be a contender around here. It has to be said that he hasn’t been in particularly good form in recent times but he closed out in Joburg last week with a 65 which offers up hope that he is starting to hit the ball well and nobody hit more fairways than him last week which was encouraging. He won on the Sunshine Tour last year so we know he can be more than competitive at this level and I’ll pay to see if that final round on Sunday inspires him to deliver the goods here.
The other bet I’ll go with is Sean Crocker. He is definitely long enough to tame this beast and now that he arrives here as a DP World Tour event winner having won the Hero Open in Scotland last season, he should have the confidence to separate himself from the rest in an event like this. Crocker generally fares better where his length is an advantage and that is certainly the case this week. He has been second in a tournament in South Africa in the past so the grasses and conditions certainly won’t be against him. Not so long ago at the Open de France, Crocker ranked second in strokes gained on approach and if he is firing the irons that well this week he could very well be tough to beat. I’ll pay to see how well he goes.
Tips
Back D.Frittelli to win South African Open Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back E.van Rooyen to win South African Open Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Stone to win South African Open Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Crocker to win South African Open Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
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