Australia begin a full tour of Sri Lanka on Tuesday when a three Test match series begins prior to five ODIs and two T20s which follow it and for all those in the UK looking to watch the entire tour is live on Eurosport.
Schedule
1st Test: 26-30 July at Pallekele
2nd Test: 4-8 August at Galle
3rd Test: 13-17 August at Colombo
Sri Lanka
Angelo Mathews’ side head into this series off the back of an effort in England where they were thoroughly outplayed. The weather was cold and miserable and their performances reflected that so they will be pleased to get back to the warmth of home at the very least.
That defeat in England was Sri Lanka’s fifth in their last six series so this isn’t a format they excel in. That said in their last 18 series in Sri Lanka they have only lost four so they are much harder to beat at home, as you would expect with their lack of quality seamers which hurts them overseas.
Australia
Australia haven’t played a Test series since February when they went to New Zealand and won 2-0 in a series which helped send them back to the top of the ICC Test rankings. In total Australia have won seven of their last nine series with just defeats in the UAE and England blotting their copy book.
As you would expect for a nation as proud and as serious as Australia are at cricket they have named a full strength squad for the tour which gives off the impression they mean business. They have also played a warm up match to get used to the conditions which is another signal of their intent over the next month.
Head to Head
Just like in the other two series going on around the world at the moment it must be said that it is really good that this series is three matches long. All too often second tier sides play two matches for a series so credit to the boards that this is three games.
If you are a Sri Lanka fan look away now as the record between these two series wise doesn’t make good reading. These two sides have played 11 series down the years with Sri Lanka winning just the one back in 1999. In fact the one Test they won in that series is the only time they have ever beaten Australia over this format.
In contrast Australia have won the other 10 series, haven’t lost a single match and have won 17 with the eight draws. It is an understatement to say that Australia are dominant in this particular match up.
Odds
Given the record between the two sides it probably comes as no surprise that Australia head into this series no bigger than 4/11 to win it with Sri Lanka as big as 11/1 and the draw, which can’t always be ruled out in this part of the world with the heavy conditions, a 4/1 chance.
In the Sri Lanka player markets their captain Angelo Mathews is a 5/2 favourite to top score for them. Dinesh Chandimal is 3/1 with Kusal Mendis at 4/1 and Kaushal Silva at 9/2. With the ball Rangana Herath is no bigger than 11/10 to be the top bowler with Nuwan Pradeep 9/2.
Australia’s top batsman market is dominated by David Warner at 9/4 with Steve Smith a bit bigger at 11/4. Usman Khawaja is next at 9/2 with Joe Burns at 6/1. In the bowler market you can get 11/4 on both Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon.
Betting
Even though they are dominant in the record between these two I can’t be backing Australia at 4/11 in this series even accounting for the fact that Sri Lanka’s bowling attack is decimated at the minute. I did have a quick look at the correct scores where history says you’d want to be on the 3-0 Australia but can you ever really trust the weather in Sri Lanka? That puts me off.
Given all of that I’m heading to the player markets for a couple of bets in this series with the first one in the top Australia batsman market where I believe it may not be all about the big three. In fact the player I like is Joe Burns.
Burns isn’t going to have too much to worry about against the new ball because Sri Lanka’s best seamers are all injured so this is going to come down to who plays the spinners the best. We all know Australian’s are pretty average playing spin but Joe Burns isn’t.
I’ve seen him play it very well for Leicestershire in the past and with that in mind and given the fact he’ll bat every time Australia do unlike some down the order, the 6/1 on him looks a decent price.
In the Australia bowler market Nathan Lyon should be competitive, perhaps more than Mitchell Starc who might find these wickets blunt his skills but someone who shouldn’t be overlooked is Steve O’Keefe.
It wouldn’t be beyond all recognition for Sri Lanka to make plans about the main bowlers and forget O’Keefe but the left arm spinner is very handy and he’s going to get through a lot of work in this series. Just on potential work rate alone he looks overpriced at 7/2 especially when you factor in the 10 wickets he took in the warm up match.
Tips
Back J.Burns Top Australia Series Batsman for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back S.O’Keefe Top Australia Series Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Ladbrokes
Back him here:
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