Queensland have already won the 2023 State of Origin series and on Wednesday they will head into enemy territory looking to complete a whitewash. New South Wales haven’t performed in the first two games and will be desperate for a consolation win in front of their own fans.
The opening two matches were competitive at times before becoming a little one-sided and it will be interesting to see what the two sides have for us with the series no longer on the line. One thing we can guarantee is there will be plenty of passion.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Arena channels with the build-up to the final game beginning at 10am ahead of a 11.05am kick off.
New South Wales
This has been a series to forget for New South Wales. They went into it determined to get the shield back and largely dominated the opening game but failed to punch enough holes in the opposing defence to get over the line and then they just imploded in the second match. I think it is fair to say that there is going to be a serious fallout for the Blues once the series is done but that shouldn’t deter them from pushing for a win, even if it is only a consolation one.
The big thing for New South Wales here is they just have to defence with a lot more strength than they have done so far in the series. Almost every time Queensland have been in their 20 metres they have come away with points and at this level that isn’t good enough. The other thing that the Blues need is for their star backs to be more clinical when they get into the position to strike. That hasn’t happened at all in the series to date.
Queensland
This has been the perfect follow up to the series win for Queensland so far. They have won both matches very comfortably and they have shown that they can handle everything that New South Wales have thrown at them and come back with enough of their own to get the job done. The big confidence booster for the Maroons came in the opening game when they took control of things even though they were a man down at the time.
That led to them being able to control the pace of the second game and at no stage from the moment they took the lead did they look like being pulled back. It is rare to see an Origin match dominated in quite the fashion that Queensland did in the last game and now the task at hand for them is to replicate that in enemy territory. It is rare for Queensland to be favourites in Sydney but if they can convert that position this will be a famous series.
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Team News
Brad Fittler has unsurprisingly made a number of changes to his charges for this final match. He will now be without both starting half-backs with Jarome Luai replaced by Cody Walker while Bradman Best and Keaon Koloamatangi will make their debuts.
Billy Slater has chosen not to look too far into the future and has kept his changes to a minimum with Alexander Brimson, Harry Grant and Jeremiah Nanai coming into the starting 13. Corey Horsburgh will make an Origin debut from the bench.
Betting
New South Wales have home advantage going for them here but it looks to me like they are looking to the future rather than being hell bent on avoiding the whitewash here and they don’t look anything like as strong as Queensland on paper here. The big difference in the series so far has actually been the back lines of these two sides. Queensland have won that battle and as such they have strolled the series and it is hard to see that not happening here too.
I’m always reluctant to back the away side in this series but I just don’t see where NSW have closed the gap going into this final game. In the first two matches you could make the case for the Blues being the better side on paper but you certainly can’t make that claim here and given that Queensland have won easily and I’m sure would love nothing more than to seal a series whitewash on enemy soil. I don’t like backing the away side in this rivalry but 8/11 quotes feel a lot higher than I’d have them. I’ll take Queensland here.
Tips
Back Queensland to beat New South Wales for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Betfair
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