The greatest rivalry in Australian sport returns on Wednesday when New South Wales Blues and the Queensland Maroons do battle in Sydney to get the 2024 State of Origin series up and running in what is sure to be an intense contest.
Queensland have won the last two series but with New South Wales at home in the opening match the onus is on them to draw first blood as they look to regain the shield. With the last game in fortress Brisbane, Queensland know a win here will go a long way towards three in a row for them.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Action channels with the build-up to the series opener beginning at 10am UK time ahead of the 11.05am kick off in Sydney.
New South Wales Blues
The New South Wales Blues had won three of the past four series prior to dropping the last two but drastic changes have come their way as they look to get control back of this rivalry. Brad Fittler made an immediate impact when he came in as the coach but there were vibes that his impact was fizzling out and he has been replaced by Michael Maguire, a slightly controversial pick who certainly has something to prove both in this opening game and the series.
He has made some big calls including ditching the dynamic and experienced full-back James Tedesco, although that decision has backfired as injuries have meant he has had to recall the New South Wales lynchpin. Generally the backs of the Blues have been able to get on top of their opponents in recent times but the forwards have not been able to get the job done and it will be interesting to see if anything has changed in that regard under Maguire.
Queensland Maroons
This feels like a big series for the Queensland Maroons too. They have had the new coach bounce under Billy Slater which the Blues had under Fittler and having won the first two series under him it will be interesting to see if the Australian legend can go one better than his former opponent and land three shields in his opening three campaigns. Queensland have it tough given that they are on the road in the first game but that might just motivate them even more.
The Maroons have generally dominated the recent series off the back of their forward pack with their back line undergoing some changes along the way and you would imagine that is how they will have to win the game this time around too should they manage to do it. It will be interesting to see if Slater can come up with another surprise for the Blues because they will surely have worked out a plan to deal with the pair of hookers which has destroyed NSW recently.
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Team News
James Tedesco will wear the full-back jersey for the Blues having originally been left out of the squad but Michael Maguire will be without his key stand-off Nathan Cleary who is out of the series with injury. He has surprisingly left Latrell Mitchell out of his side too.
The big selection decision from Billy Slater was the omission of David Fifita which will be highlighted should it come back to haunt him. There is no Cameron Munster either while Kalyn Ponga misses the opening game with an injury.
Betting
It is pretty well-known that the opening game of an Origin series is often a low scoring affair with the team combinations getting acquainted with each other after a relatively short camp and then as the series goes on and the series situation changes the points come along more readily. I don’t expect the trend to change here. That trend now reads 11 of the last 13 openers dating back to 2011 have gone under 37.5 points and that is exactly what I expect to happen here.
Both teams are missing their creative half-back in Nathan Cleary for the Blues and Cameron Munster for the Maroons while some strike players in the backs are either injured or have been overlooked. Queensland have some injuries to gun forwards which brings the two packs closer together and all in all I’m expecting a real arm wrestle with the kicking games of both teams affected by the sixes being absent. You get the feeling both defences are going to be hard to break down here and so the under looks the obvious call.
Tips
Back Under 37.5 points for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Sky Bet
