One of the biggest matches of the Super League season so far takes place on Thursday night when the Castleford Tigers host St Helens at The Jungle in what is literally a must win match for the home side.
Were the Tigers to win this match they would move within two points of Saints in the race for fourth place with two matches left. Lose and their season will be over with St Helens six points clear so everything is on the line for Castleford.
St Helens will be looking to build on last week’s win over Leeds and if they manage back to back wins then they will be able to ease down a little ahead of the semi-final in three weeks time. Even if Saints lose they will have two more chances to get the points they need to progress.
Castleford go into this match off the back of a defeat to Huddersfield last week but I don’t think they were as bad in that match as the scoreline gave the impression they were. They led early and but for a sin binning in which Huddersfield went try mad the Tigers may well have stayed in touch.
Anytime you beat Leeds it is a good win but I do wonder if Saints met them at the right time after Leeds had the effort and then the euphoria of winning the Challenge Cup final the week earlier. We’ll find out if they are back to form in this match but four defeats on the spin prior to last week remain a concern.
In big matches like this you would like your first choice side out but the Tigers don’t have that luxury. Justin Carney remains suspended pending an internal investigation and the rumour mill has him never playing for the club again. That’s a negative but the positive is that Michael Shenton returns from injury and they’re a different side with him in it.
St Helens are expected to name a similar side to last week. All eyes will be on their three star men of James Roby, Alex Walmsley and Luke Walsh. If Castleford contain those three it will see them go a long way to containing St Helens as a whole.
It is hard not to focus on Castleford in this match because it is all on them really. Just because they have to win doesn’t mean they will but we do know they’ll be giving it their all which gives us some comfort betting wise. Saints have the derby with Wigan next week which could distract them.
I was tempted to go with Castleford to win this match. The last time the two sides met at The Jungle they won with the latest of late drop goals and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is as tight as that so with that in mind I’ll err on the side of safety and take the Tigers with a 10pt head start, a start that looks far too big in a match of this magnitude.
Back Castleford (+10) to beat St Helens for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Stan James
Blog RL YTD: +3.53pts
