The Super League returns this week and it does so with a new structure, a new team and a number of changes within those firmly ensconced in the competition as another year of rugby league gets ready to thrill us.
Wigan Warriors did just that when they powered their way to the title at Old Trafford last season and they will be looking to defend the crown but a number of sides have got themselves into a position to trouble them.
Recent Winners
2018 – Wigan Warriors
2017 – Leeds Rhinos
2016 – Wigan Warriors
2015 – Leeds Rhinos
2014 – St Helens
2013 – Wigan Warriors
2012 – Leeds Rhinos
2011 – Leeds Rhinos
2010 – Wigan Warriors
2009 – Leeds Rhinos
The Format
We’ve lost a match from the regular season this year. Instead each of the 12 teams plays the other home and away with six matches added in on top of them. There is the Magic Weekend too which comes to 29 matches in total. The team who finishes bottom gets relegated while the top five head into the play-offs for the race to Old Trafford.
The play-offs last four weeks with 4th playing 5th in Match A which is a straight knockout. 2nd meets 3rd in Match B. The winners of A play the loser of B in week two in Match C while the winner of B travel to the table toppers in Match D. The winner of D go straight to Old Trafford while the loser of it hosts the winner of C in a knockout semi-final to play the winner of D in the Grand Final.
Favourites
St Helens blew everyone away in the regular season last term but it did them no good as they bombed out in the semi-final and didn’t even make it to the big dance. They are the 7/2 favourites for Grand Final glory this time around but they’ll have to do without Ben Barba who has gone back to Australia. He was the leading try scorer in Super League last year and while Saints were anything but a one man team when he played well they did likewise. Kevin Naiqama and Joseph Paulo are their marquee signings but losing Barba is a big blow.
Warrington Wolves lost out to Wigan in the Grand Final last year and they are 4/1 to go one better this time around. The Challenge Cup finalists improved as the season went on under Steve Price and have done some good business in the close season with Blake Austin and Jason Clark coming in while Gareth Widdop joins for next season. A fair number have left but nobody who made a massive impact so you would expect the Wolves to be stronger. Mark them down as dangers.
Wigan Warriors go into the campaign as 5/1 pokes to keep hold of their title. In most years that would look a huge price but so much has changed at the DW Stadium. Shane Wane has stepped down to be replaced by Adrian Lam for this season and three huge players have left in Sam Tomkins, John Bateman and Ryan Sutton. Zak Hardaker replaces Tomkins but he has more problems than a Samaritans phone line so the onus could be on Jarrod Sammut to guide them around the field on his return to the Super League. You can never rule out the Warriors but too much has happened for them to be attractive especially with them beginning the season on -2pts for a salary cap infringement.
Castleford Tigers threatened to win this competition two seasons ago when they made the final before going down to the Leeds Rhinos but they couldn’t repeat that last season when injuries robbed them of their best players for much of the campaign. Daryl Powell has stuck with the main personnel for this season but rumours of a dust up between their players on a pre-season trip suggests all isn’t well at The Jungle. 9/1 is fair but it is not for me.
Challengers
Leeds Rhinos always have to be in the conversation whenever talk of winning the Grand Final is about. They had a horrible season last time around and it won’t take too much for them to improve on that it has to be said. At 10/1 I’m sure they’ll be popular and with NRL trio Tui Lolohea, Trent Merrin and Konrad Hurrell in their midst they’ll be confident of going well but Ryan Hall and Joel Moon have departed which is a bit of a concern.
Hull FC pretty much had to write their season off from an early stage last term because their injuries were horrendous. It got so bad that Kirk Yeaman had to be called out of retirement to play at one point. All things being equal and with a bit more fortune with injuries, the Black and Whites should have a much better of time of it this time around. Lee Radford has added numbers to his squad even if there is no standout name but nobody of massive importance has left. Don’t be surprised if Hull FC threaten at 14/1.
Catalans Dragons head into the campaign at 16/1. The Challenge Cup winners will know that they can go all the way against the best and their reward is a match at the Nou Camp at some point. If they can deliver the goods on the road regularly then they have a massive chance under Steve McNamara who has worked wonders in Perpignan. He has brought some big names into the club with Sam Tomkins, Matty Smith and Matt Whitley coming in and with the mix of pace and power in their side they could be the sleepers.
Huddersfield Giants flew home last season and if they carry that form into this campaign then they could soon make their 28/1 quotes look pretty ridiculous quite quickly. We should remember it was only three seasons ago that they were seconds from winning the League Leaders’ Shield so there is no doubt they can compete. Danny Brough’s exit might not be as big as it might seem but with Scott Grix coming back and Akuila Uate coming in to join Jermaine McGillvary, the Giants can hold claims as having the best back three in the competition. Matt Frawley brings NRL quality too and I think the Giants are ready for a big campaign.
Outsiders
Wakefield Trinity have produced a number of great results over the last couple of seasons but they have been unable to deliver enough of them to make an impact on this league in terms of making it beyond the regular season. In the new world though relegation shouldn’t be an option so they should be able to have a right good go every week. You’d have to think Scott Grix will be a big loss but Danny Brough could be a great signing. There is value in them at 33/1 but I think the top five is beyond them.
Hull KR never truly got going on their return to Super League but they delivered in the qualifiers when it matters and despite the biggest turnover of player of anyone in the competition they should be set to improve. Kane Linnett and Josh Drinkwater look great signings while Mitch Garbutt and Weller Hauraki will get their head down and drive them up the pitch. I don’t see them being in the top five but a good start could see their 66/1 odds drop at some point.
Salford Red Devils were another side who had to come through the qualifiers to keep their Super League ambitions alive and as such they needed to strengthen. Ken Sio is their big winter signings but they don’t look massively better on paper heading into this campaign than they did last time around. They might be looking behind them more than in front of them as the season goes into its latter stages.
London Broncos returned to Super League via the Million Pound Match when Jarrod Sammut kicked them to victory against Toronto but he’s left for Wigan which is a massive blow. Jordan Abdull and Ryan Morgan bring good quality in on loan with them but someone is going to have to stand up massively if the Broncos are to stay up. They have plenty of points in them though which might help their cause but if they finish second bottom it will be job done.
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Outright Betting
I think the way the competition is devised this season there is room for a fast finishing side to make it into the top five and then they would need three big weeks to make it to Old Trafford and anything can happen from there. With that in mind I’ll search out the value this term with one side offering obvious credentials.
Catalans Dragons have always had the ability to trouble the best in Super League but now they are beginning to add consistency to their game and in one-off situations they can beat anyone, as we saw in the Challenge Cup last year. If Matty Smith can find his best Wigan form then he is going to replace Drinkwater nicely and with Sam Tomkins adding the x-factor the Dragons can surprise many this time around.
Finish Bottom
If you would look at the odds then there is probably no point in London Broncos playing this season as they are huge favourites to finish bottom but if there is one thing the Broncos have it is spirit and determination so I wouldn’t be completely surprised if they pick up the six or so wins which might well be enough to avoid relegation.
I worry more for the Salford Red Devils if I am honest and at 7/1 I think there is enough of a margin to take them for the drop. Things are never all that clear cut at Salford and you just know off field issues will crop up at some point. Salford look much weaker than they did last season and they didn’t look fantastic then. 7/1 is enough for me to take here.
Player Betting
I always like a go on the two player markets ahead of a Super League season and this term is going to be no different. There is often plenty of value in the top try scorer market and the Man of Steel one and I’ll have a go at finding it here.
I’ve a sneaky feeling Huddersfield Giants will go better than their position in the market suggests they will and if they are to do that then Akuila Uate is going to need to get a few tries to get them over the line in matches. The Giants are likely to target him in the early part of the campaign while McGillvary is out with injury so I would expect the Fijian to hit the ground running. Uate is a great finisher but he’s tall and can collect high balls and he has the moves to break the line. At 33/1 I think he’ll go well.
For the Man of Steel award I’ll have a go at a couple of players. Lachlan Coote is the replacement for Ben Barba and if he has a similar impact to the Australian then he is going to run this award pretty close. St Helens are set up for the full-back to be a big feature in their attacking play and if Coote can shine defensively too then he could soon be a leading runner for this prestigious award.
I think there is mileage in having a look at Josh Drinkwater at 80/1. He completely turned the Catalans Dragons around last season and was a huge player in them winning the Challenge Cup and if he can have the same effect on Hull KR it won’t be difficult to notice him. Hull KR aren’t likely to be in the shake up but if he can lead them to a better term than is of them then he could yet smuggle his way into the reckoning.
Tips
Back Catalans Dragons to win Super League Grand Final (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Salford Red Devils to finish bottom for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with Betway
Back them here:
Back A.Uate Top Try Scorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back L.Coote Man of Steel for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral
Back him here:
Back J.Drinkwater Man of Steel for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365
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