The T20 World Cup continues with just the one match on Monday and we return to Group 1 of the Super 12s as Australia go in search of the big win they need when they take on Ireland at The Gabba in Brisbane.
Incredibly with two matches to go in this group it is Ireland who go into this match ahead of Australia but the winners will keep their semi-final hopes alive while the losers will be as good as done for the competition.
Australia
This has been a frustrating tournament for Australia. Their opening defeat to New Zealand, and in particular the margin of it, left them hanging onto their hopes of retaining their title by a thread so the last thing they needed was a washout against the other team who are big dangers for the semi-final spot in England. Things would have been a lot easier had they played that match and won it but as they couldn’t they now have to win their final two matches and give their net run rate a serious boost to reach the last four.
In Ireland and Afghanistan, you would think Australia have the ideal opponents with which to pick up the wins so it should be all about how much they can win by, unless a shocking performance like the one they gave against New Zealand rears its head again. To be fair to Australia, they bounced back from that shambolic display with a good one against Sri Lanka and a similar performance here will give them every chance of going into their final group game in control of their own destiny.
Ireland
It looked like this would be a group phase which would just fizzle out before it got going for Ireland when they were drubbed by Sri Lanka in their first game of it. They wouldn’t have been the first team to struggle after the emotional high of coming through the first stage group and wouldn’t have been the last either but they bounced back from that beating to see off England and revive their hopes. The momentum they built up in that match was then halted when their match with Afghanistan was washed out.
That leaves them probably needing to beat arguably the two best teams in the group in Australia and New Zealand in order to stay alive and reach the semi-final. One way of looking at it is they have nothing to lose from here on in but the other way to see it is they are two wins away from doing something very special and that could bring some pressure onto their shoulders. The one thing they are going to have to do if they are going to win this match is bowl as well as they can then hope their batters are in good touch.
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Team News
Aaron Finch gave no massive clues over the identity of the XI he will go into battle with. We know that Adam Zampa and Matthew Wade have tested negative for Covid so they are fit but there is growing talk that Cameron Green could play, if only to lengthen the batting.
Ireland have no major need to make any changes from the team which beat England unless they want to bring a second spinner back into the fold. That would seem unlikely on this Brisbane wicket though.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets over the course of the day here. The first one is one which has already landed for me earlier in the tournament and comes in the form of Australia to hit more than 6.5 sixes. As I said when they covered this line against Sri Lanka, this tournament is no longer just about winning for the hosts. They have to pile up the runs and win as quickly or as emphatically as possible in order to address their negative net run rate. They have the ground and the attack to do that against. The Gabba has short boundaries in the corners and there are no demons in this Ireland attack so I expect the Australian middle order to be sent out to smack as many balls as they can over the ropes. I like the over on the Australia sixes line.
I’ll also have a small play on Marcus Stoinis to be the player of the match. He was player of the match in Perth when he demolished Sri Lanka in the last match and we know he is hitting the ball extremely well. What might separate him from the rest is that he could well bowl a few overs in the middle order and if he can pick up a cheap wicket or two and then put together a cameo with the bat it wouldn’t take a huge amount for him to be named the player of the match. Everything Stoinis does is with an aggressive style which catches the eye and the 14/1 on him to be the player of the match feels big to me.
Tips
Back Australia – Over 6.5 sixes for a 6/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
Back them here:
Back M.Stoinis – Player of the Match for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfair
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