The last match in the first round stage of the T20 World Cup is another knockout clash when the second part of the double header takes place in Hobart on Friday as Scotland go up against Zimbabwe for a place in the Super 12.
It really is a simple equation here in that the winner will go through to the next stage of the competition while the loser will be on their way home a lot earlier than they would have liked to be. One spanner in the works could be the forecast which isn’t good.
Scotland
When Scotland thrashed West Indies in their opening match of the tournament, they could have been forgiven for thinking that they had blown through the biggest obstacle between them and the next stage. What they didn’t bargain for was running into one of the best partnerships of the tournament so far in the second game and having failed to defend a decent score they now go into this match knowing that they have to win it to go through.
I think it is important that they recognise if they were offered this position when the tournament started then they would certainly have signed up for it so from that point of view what has gone before is largely irrelevant. Scotland just need to tighten up a touch with the ball but the one area where they have no issues is with the bat. You could argue they have been the best team in the tournament so far in terms of batting consistency.
Zimbabwe
When Zimbabwe did a good job on Ireland in their opening game they would have known they set themselves up for needing just one more win from their next two matches to secure their place in the Super 12s. They made a bit of a hash of their first one but they always knew they had a second chance here. The good thing for Zimbabwe is there is no clouding of the situation with net run rates and things like that. They just have to win.
The post-match interviews after their defeat to West Indies seemed to accept the fact that they kind of got a little giddy or overconfident with the bat in hand and it was good to hear that because that is what happened. They need to bat the situation here rather than go for the glory and if they do that they will feel they have every chance because their bowlers have delivered the goods in both the matches they have played so far.
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Team News
Scotland have been unchanged throughout the competition so far and although they were beaten last time out there is no need for them to rush into any panic changes so if everyone has scrubbed up well from the previous game they should be unchanged.
Zimbabwe will be hoping that their captain Craig Ervine is available for this knockout game after an asthma attack forced him out of the defeat to West Indies. His experience will be vital given the situation his team are in.
Betting
We don’t know whether the Zimbabwe captain will feature in this match but we do know that the Scotland one will and it is Richie Berrington which catches my eye in terms of a bet on this match. I say that because he has a performance line of just 22.5 which is actually quite low when you deep into the numbers. Before we go into the numbers I’m a big believer in the big players from a team standing up and being counted in the biggest matches. That is why they get trusted with the positions they do.
Berrington is the captain of this Scotland side and he has been there and done it with them so the pressure of this situation shouldn’t be too much for him. He gets to go against a Zimbabwe side who has had plenty of personal success against. These two sides met in a three match T20 series in Scotland last year and in those matches Berrington made 82, 42 and 44 which is significant when faced with a 22.5 line here. He can bowl and might bowl the odd over here if needed. That series last year suggests he can cover with the bat but with other scoring methods in play I like the over here.
Tips
Back R.Berrington’s Performance – Over 22.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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