The second set of matches in the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup comes to a close with an intriguing looking match in Group 1 on Saturday night when Australia go up against Afghanistan in St Vincent.
Australia won their opening match and they will be through if they win this one while Afghanistan lost their first match and will be out of the competition if they lose this one as well. There is plenty to play for here.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan looked a million dollars in the first three matches in this tournament but we have seen both in these global events and the franchise tournaments that these things aren’t dictated and won by how teams start them, it is how they progress the longer it goes on and it has to be said that Afghanistan have come up massively short in their last two matches. West Indies did a job on them in a dead rubber of a last group game and then India had far too much for them in the first game in this stage.
On both occasions Afghanistan were asked to chase a score down and they came up massively short. It wasn’t just down to their batters. In both games they let the opposite rack up the runs and then the weight of scoreboard pressure was too much for the openers to handle and they came up short. They either need to find a way to bat first here or their openers have to perform better under pressure. Conditions will be favourable to Afghanistan which is a positive.
Australia
We probably still haven’t seen as much of the best of Australia as they would have liked so far in the competition but the fact that they have played five and won them all can only be a good thing. There is a thought process that this might be their toughest challenge so far because these are not conditions that they revel in traditionally so if they can come through here and give themselves maximum preparation time for the semi-final on Wednesday that would be beneficial.
Australia are showing up with the ball regularly in the tournament but while they are getting better with the bat we haven’t yet seen that complete smash of an innings since the England game. They probably won’t need that until the semi-final but their batters will need to go well here if they are to avoid a nervy must-win clash with India next week. Australia will know they were getting a good hiding by Afghanistan in the 50 over World Cup before a quite incredible innings from Glenn Maxwell got them home. They would like a smoother path here.
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Team News
Jonathan Trott isn’t known as a man who panics after a poor performance so he might well send the same XI into battle that he chose against India. The one change if one is made would be to bring another bowling option into the side.
Australia haven’t really changed things up from their main XI for the games that matter in this tournament but they might switch things here because an extra spinner is likely to be beneficial, especially with Afghanistan having so many right-handers.
Betting
This ground in St Vincent has got harder to score on the longer the tournament has gone on and it is clear that spin can win in this part of the world so Afghanistan might have a great chance to get the win that they need to keep their hopes alive here. I am on them outright though and you’ve got to think that if they do win here they will beat Bangladesh in their last game and make it through so I’m happy to let them win the match, although I am severely tempted to take them at 9/2.
Instead though I’ll side with a low scoring match. Afghanistan had Australia 91-7 in that 50 over World Cup match in Mumbai back in November and those conditions were nothing like as conducive to spin bowling as these ones are and Australia do not play spin well. Afghanistan will definitely be sending 12 overs of spin down here and it could be more. Australia might well be able to offer that amount and when you throw in the pressure of the importance of this game this doesn’t feel like a high scoring game to me. I’ll play under 295.5 runs.
Tips
Back Under 295.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
