The last game in the Super Eights stage of the T20 World Cup takes place in St Vincent on Monday night and for the second evening in succession an effective quarter final will be played out when Afghanistan take on Bangladesh.
The equation for Afghanistan here is pretty simple. If they win they will head to Trinidad to take on South Africa in the semi-final. If they lose they are out. Bangladesh know a win in the region of 60 runs or with seven overs to spare would see them snatch the spot in the last four.
Afghanistan
When you consider the margin of their loss to India in the opening match in the Super Eights stage, it looked like Afghanistan had fluffed their lines in their bid to make the semi-final of this competition, however when faced with a must-win match against Australia on this ground they came up with the goods and that will serve them well as they continue to play knockout cricket from here on in. They have their destiny in their own hands which is all they could have asked for after that opening game.
The one concern you would have about Afghanistan is that they look like world beaters when they get the chance to bat first, which Australia mysteriously gave them, but they look out of their depth when they have to bat second and they can’t rely on winning tosses from here on in. It might be that they are ok here because Bangladesh will surely want to chase to give them the best chance of getting what they need but it is something they need to address moving forward.
Bangladesh
Given that Bangladesh have lost their opening two matches in the Super Eights stage they can consider themselves extremely fortunate that they go into this last game still in with a chance of making the semi-final. It will take something pretty extraordinary for them to make it through give the margin of victory that they need on a ground which isn’t yielding high scoring matches but a slim chance is much better than no chance and you just never know in sport.
If Bangladesh are to deliver what they need to make it through then we are probably going to need to see their best batting showing of the competition so far. The chase, assuming that they opt to chase like it would make sense to do, would need to be set up by their bowlers but if their batters can’t come out and cut loose it won’t make a huge amount of difference. Bangladesh might as well get thumped going for what they need than just try and win the game and spoil the Afghanistan party.
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Team News
You wouldn’t think Afghanistan are going to make any changes to a side which played so well against Australia last time out. The only way they would do is if they want to introduce yet another spin option into the side but that would be unlikely.
The same goes for Bangladesh really because spin is going to be key in this match. It would make sense for them to get four overs out of Mahmudullah and keep Jaker Ali in so that they can launch from ball one in whatever they need.
Betting
I say it all the time but now and again we get a game situation which dictates the way we can bet and we have that here with Bangladesh. You can predict how the game will go and who might win it and things but that is guesswork. The one thing we do know is that Bangladesh will be going out to look to hit a huge amount of boundaries in the hope of giving themselves a chance of making it through to the next stage so I like them to hit over 13.5 boundaries in this one.
That doesn’t guarantee that it will land because this pitch hasn’t been the easiest to score on but both teams covered this line without really trying on Saturday night and with Bangladesh having to go out and score quick runs we can at least expect them to attack the powerplay. These two sides will have faced off against each other plenty of times in the various formats so there won’t be any surprise so I expect a positive Bangladesh batting showing which gets them 14 boundaries regardless of the end result.
Tips
Back Bangladesh – Over 13.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
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