The first stage of the T20 World Cup is a group phase but it becomes a knockout competition for Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the first game in Nagpur on Saturday.
Both teams have seen off the challenges of Hong Kong and Scotland in this tournament already which means that the winner of this match will join England, West Indies, South Africa and Sri Lanka in Group 2 of the main draw. The loser will be packing their bags and wondering what could have been.
Afghanistan have flourished in the way only they can in the tournament so far. They have sent down a huge amount of pace in the tournament and blown batsmen away at times and then they have watched Mohammad Shahzad show all of his class and unique character with the bat in his hand.
It was a bit of a surprise that Afghanistan left Amir Hamza out of the last match with the pitches in Nagpur starting to slow up quite alarmingly but surely he will be recalled here. One of the seamers is likely to miss out. Hamid Hassan would be the obvious choice in that regard.
Zimbabwe have made life difficult for themselves at times but have shown good composure under the intense pressure moments and they know they still have plenty more to offer which will be a comforting factor for them moving forward.
Zimbabwe’s performance against Scotland was pretty emphatic and so much so that it would be harsh to change too much. Vusi Sibanda came out on the wrong side of a collision with his captain while he was batting but despite requiring stitches he has been passed fit to play in this match.
These two sides have met on four occasions in this format and Afghanistan have won all four times and with the way the pitches in Nagpur are starting to really slow up you would think they will be better suited by conditions here.
Afghanistan have really impressed me with the bat in this tournament. Although Shahzad has predictably stolen the headlines their top three all have runs in the competition so far and they were even able to give their lower order promotions to give them time at the crease against Hong Kong.
Zimbabwe’s top order has left a little to be desired so far in the tournament and while their middle order has bailed them out to date the pressures are a little different here especially if Zimbabwe are chasing which they’ve not done in the event yet.
I can’t ignore that head to head record between the two particularly in these conditions so I’m firmly in the Afghanistan camp here.
I also can’t ignore the sixes line in this match either. Even money on under 8.5 sixes looks very tasty here. The totals in Nagpur so far this tournament have been 10, 7, 5 and 2 so they are gradually getting lower and that is no surprise because the wickets have totally dried out and are now spinning quite sharply, as you would expect them to do with four matches on the ground in such a short space of time.
I mentioned going into the tournament that the boundaries are huge here so that supports the unders while this isn’t a match for either side to give it the big one with the bat. It is just a match to win and with that in mind I’m happy to go under in the sixes market for this match.
WON – Back Afghanistan to beat Zimbabwe for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with NetBet
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Back Under 8.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
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