The PGA Tour heads back to mainland America this week for The American Express, the multi-course tournament which features professionals and amateurs taking on three different tracks in one of the more popular events of the first part of the year.
Nick Dunlap caused a major shock here last year when he won the tournament as an amateur before he turned professional and he’ll be looking to cause a similar impression here. A competitive field will be out to deny him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Nick Dunlap
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Hudson Swafford
2021 – Si Woo Kim
2020 – Andrew Landry
2019 – Adam Long
2018 – Jon Rahm
2017 – Hudson Swafford
2016 – Jason Dufner
2015 – Bill Haas
The Courses
We have three courses in action once again this week – Stadium Course, Tournament Course at PGA West and La Quinta. Each professional and their amateur partner plays the rotation of the courses once over the first three days and then those who make the cut will fight it out for the title on the Stadium Course to crown our champion across the course of Sunday.
All three courses are par 72s and none of them are especially long. They are all set up a little easier than we would expect courses to be in big tournaments to allow the amateurs to get round them relatively successfully. The standard diet for this tournament is pretty simple – hit lots of greens and make a lot of birdies. We’re looking for a winning score in the 20s under par so it is imperative we back players who make a stack of birdies.
The Field
There is a big event going on over on the DP World Tour this week which has taken away a lot of the European stars from this event while the West Coast Swing picks up pace after this week so the field is competitive more than elite but there are still plenty of household names who are teeing it up here. In terms of size, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay are the two biggest names as they look to land this title for the first time in their career.
Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark and Cameron Young are some of the other leading Americans who are in the field this week. There is a fairly strong international challenge here too. That is led by the Korean trio of Sungjae Im, Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim with Nico Echavarria another overseas player in the field. The European charge is a reduced one this week with Harry Hall and Sepp Straka among those looking to take the tournament down.
Market Leaders
This field is extremely competitive and as such we have a quartet of players who are shorter than 20/1 as a result of that. The favourite for the tournament is Justin Thomas who is 12/1 to land this title for the first time. He finished T3 here last year and has the temperament to deal with the pro-am nature of this tournament. His iron game is in decent touch and that is the key to success around here but whether he is quite in the form to win a shootout I’d have my doubts.
Sungjae Im is next in the betting at 14/1. He has played in this tournament on six previous occasions and he is yet to finish outside the top 25 but at the same time he hasn’t finished in the top 10 either. He can go low but I always think he is better in tournaments which aren’t quite as easy as this one. He was third at The Sentry a couple of weeks ago which bodes well and I would expect him to be in or around the frame but the price doesn’t really convince me.
Sam Burns is the third favourite for this tournament at 16/1. He had a top 10 at Kapalua despite an ordinary start and he has a more than fair record here with a couple of top 10s in just five appearances. He is certainly good enough on the greens to go very well here but I always think the bigger players have their sights set stronger on events to come and are largely here for the social element of playing with a star of sport and screen. I like Burns but I’ll wait for better opportunities.
Patrick Cantlay is near enough on home soil this week and he is 18/1 to land this title for the first time in his career. He has a couple of top 10 finishes here including finishing second in 2021 so he has a fair record but once again he is another who I suspect will be looking to keep the competitive juices flowing and take whatever comes his way this week rather than being all out to win. His 2024 form didn’t really convince me enough to get involved in him at this price.
Main Bets
Tom Hoge isn’t always my favourite golfer to follow but he is one of the best iron players in the game and with the pins for the early part of this tournament always a lot friendlier than usual because of the amateur element of the event, there is no reason why Hoge shouldn’t run hot again. He has led the field after 18 holes in the first two weeks of the year and hasn’t so much faded as been outscored by a good field and a competitive one. Hoge has two top 10s in five starts here and is playing well enough to land another at the very least.
Nico Echavarria will have to get over losing in the playoff last week but this might be the ideal chance to do that with an amateur companion for the opening three rounds and a much more relaxed nature of a tournament. If he does get over that then there is no doubting his form. He has had three top three finishes in his last six starts and while they haven’t always been in the deepest fields in terms of depth, this one probably isn’t either and if he can get off to a positive start and forget last week he certainly has all the tools to score well in this event and go close to another win.
Outsiders
Adam Hadwin is always a staple bet around these courses. He is never going to contend too often on some of the bomber tracks on the PGA Tour but these three aren’t those and as a result of that he has an excellent record here. He has played this tournament nine times and has been in the top six on five occasions. Precise approach play and a very good putting stroke is the reason for that and there is no reason not to go with him again. He holds the course record at La Quinta having shot 59 there eight years ago. He has an excellent record at the Stadium Course and looks an obvious bet here.
Taylor Montgomery is one of the better putters on the PGA Tour. He led the tour in strokes gained putting last season and was second in that category the year before and on tracks which are set up easy he should be able to take full advantage of that here. He gets it out there enough off the tee to eat up the par fives and two years ago he was in the top 10 around the Stadium Course which is half of the battle here, literally. He shook off some rust with a solid if unspectacular effort at the Sony Open last week and I expect much better here at a bonkers price.
Tips
Back T.Hoge to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back N.Echavarria to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Hadwin to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Montgomery to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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